Currency
Stock Index
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from MOF 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1 | 1.25 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1.28 | 1.2738 |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 1.405 | 1.289 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| BoJ Policy Board Vote | 2 | 1 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 52-Week Bill Auction | 1.575 | 1.433 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | — | |||
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.6 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Average Cash Earnings YoY | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | In Line |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | Miss | ||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | In Line | |||
| 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | In Line | |||
| 0 | 0.4 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Orders YoY | -3.6 | -13.4 | -12 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Housing Starts YoY | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -1.2 | 2.1 | -1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 35.4 | 35.5 | 35.3 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 | Beat |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -1105.6 | -638.3 | -1052.6 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | -0.2346 | -0.2428 | 0.022 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 4062 | 2989 | 3194.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 19.3 | 23.2 | 18.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 28 | 27.9 | 26.3 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 5767.6 | 5777 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 6761.6 | 6657 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.84 | -0.68 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | 54.9 | 54.1 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 51.3 | 52.5 | 51.6 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Composite PMI | 52.3 | 53.5 | 52.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 2.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -2.4 | -0.2 | -1.7 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| -4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 15 | 15 | — | ||||
| 21 | 17 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 38.96 | 39.42 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Foreign Bond Investment | -339.7 | -345.7 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3521.5 | 2199.7 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 5.2 | -3.7 | 3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 18.6 | 11.2 | 15.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 2.379 | 2.239 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| M3 Money Supply | 2343.4 | 2337.8 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Miss |
| Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3 | 2 | 2.1 | Beat |
| Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | In Line |
| Tokyo CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | — |
| Core CPI YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index YoY | -0.5 | -0.1 | — |
| Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | — |
| In Line |
| GDP External Demand QoQ | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | In Line |
| GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ | -0.9 | -1 | -0.8 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| GDP Deflator YoY | 1.6 | 3.4 | — |
| GDP Annual Growth Rate YoY | 0.5 | 0.3 | — |
| Beat |
| Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 22 |
| Miss |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Large Manufacturers Index | 24 | 22 | 25 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Small Manufacturers Index | 14 | 9 | 11 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index | 35 | 37 | 36 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook | 30 | 28 | 30 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ | 7.6 | -1.8 | 2.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Industrial Production MoM (Jul) | 0.1 | 1.9 | -0.6 | Beat |
| Nikkei Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 49.8 | 49.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Nikkei Services PMI | 51.7 | 51.8 | 51.9 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook | -2 | -2 | -1 | Miss |
| Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook | -4 | -5 | -2 | Miss |
| Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 18 | 19 | 18 | In Line | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 50.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Miss |
| Machine Tool Orders YoY | 60.4 | 64.7 | 61 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 47.4 | 48.3 | 48 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Eco Watchers Survey Current | 47 | 46.4 | 46.8 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 30-Year JGB Auction | 4.109 | 4.1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Leading Index MoM | 0.4 | 1.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| CB Leading Index | 118 | 117.6 | 118.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Coincident Index | 118.7 | 120.6 | 119.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Coincident Indicator MoM | -1.9 | 1.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 1178.4 | 1207.5 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Overtime Pay YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.3 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Reuters Tankan Index | 22 | 21 | 23 | Miss | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year JGB Auction | 3.101 | 2.995 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Monetary Base YoY | -15.2 | -15.7 | -16.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX | -4.7 | -8.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Large All Industry Capex | 11.3 | 11.5 | 12.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 2-Year JGB Auction | 1.964 | 1.708 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 40-Year JGB Auction | 4.125 | 3.865 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Tertiary Industry Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 20-Year JGB Auction | 3.856 | 3.698 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Capital Expenditure YoY | 1.6 | 0 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Leading Economic Index | 116.5 | 116.4 | 116.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year Climate Transition JGB Auction | 2.863 | 2.195 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year Index-Linked JGB Auction | 0.86 | 0.578 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| CFTC JPY speculative net positions | -93.7 | -72.9 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Money Supply | 2275.3 | 2268.7 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 5-Year Climate Transition JGB Auction | 1.098 | 0.888 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| M2 Money Supply YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | In Line |
| 2-Year Note Yield | 0.011 | -0.062 | — |
| 5-Year Note Yield | 0.04 | -0.007 | — |
| All Industry Activity Index MoM | 1.3 | 6.8 | 1.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Leading Composite Index | 106.5 | 106 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Capital Spending YoY | 7.3 | 2.8 | -0.1 | Beat |
| Foreign investment in Japan stocks | 368.7 | — | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Foreign bond investment | 1614.8 | — | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Corporate Service Price YoY | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.4 | Beat |
| Money Supply YoY | 3 | 2.9 | — |
| Vehicle Sales YoY | -15.6 | -12.2 | — |
