Currency
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Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from MOF 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | In Line | ||
| 1.079 | 1.082 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 52-Week Bill Auction | 1.433 | 1.207 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 1.175 | 1.012 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Miss | ||
| 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | In Line | ||
| GDP Growth Annualized | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | In Line | ||
| 1.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| -1.2 | -0.7 | -1.2 | In Line | |||
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | In Line | |||
| 0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | Miss |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Starts YoY | 8.2 | 18.6 | 7.9 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Construction Orders YoY | -13.4 | 2.3 | 5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 2.4 | -3.9 | 3.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 4 | 0.6 | 3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 35.5 | 34.9 | 35 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| -3.3 | -0.4 | 1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -6.4 | 3.7 | -3.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 | Beat |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -409.9 | -680 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | -234.6 | -242.8 | 22 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -923 | 3968 | 1512 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 23.2 | 19.3 | 19.9 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 27.8 | 25.4 | 26.5 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 5767.6 | 5777 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 6761.6 | 6657 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.93 | -0.44 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 55.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 52.3 | 51.2 | 51.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 53.4 | 52.7 | 52.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 4.1 | 4.9 | 3 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 6.4 | 1.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 4.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 28 | 29 | 30 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 22 | 17 | 16 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Base YoY | -15.7 | -13.8 | -13.5 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| 10-Year JGB Auction | 2.995 | 2.84 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.6 | 0 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2-Year JGB Auction | 1.708 | 1.483 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -1978.4 | 1137.3 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| -764.1 | 622.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 116.5 | 116.5 | 116.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 118.5 | 117.9 | 118.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Core CPI YoY | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI n.s.a MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | — |
| Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index YoY | -0.5 | -0.1 | — |
| Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | — |
| GDP Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | In Line |
| GDP Deflator YoY | 1.6 | 3.4 | — |
| GDP Annual Growth Rate YoY | 0.5 | 0.3 | — |
| Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index | 37 | 36 | 35 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Small Manufacturers Index | 9 | 7 | 4 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index | 15 | 16 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook | 17 | 14 | 13 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ | -1.8 | 3.8 | 4.2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Nikkei Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 49.8 | 49.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Nikkei Services PMI | 51.7 | 51.8 | 51.9 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook | -2 | -2 | -1 | Miss |
| Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook | -4 | -5 | -2 | Miss |
| Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 18 | 19 | 18 | In Line | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 50.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Leading Economic Index | 116.5 | 116.5 | 116.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | In Line |
| 10-Year Climate Transition JGB Auction | 2.863 | 2.195 | — |
| 20-Year JGB Auction | 3.698 | 3.626 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | -1.9 | 10.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -12.4 | 7.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 5-Year JGB Auction | 2.163 | 2.02 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.8 | -1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 39.94 | 39.75 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Machine Tool Orders YoY | 50.4 | 52.8 | 42 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 10-Year Index-Linked JGB Auction | 0.86 | 0.578 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| M3 Money Supply | 2330.6 | 2328.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Reuters Tankan Index | 18 | 13 | 14 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.8 | 45.7 | 46 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Eco Watchers Survey Current | 45.7 | 44 | 44.4 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Bank Lending YoY | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 1287.1 | 1287.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 30-Year JGB Auction | 3.937 | 3.993 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Overtime Pay YoY | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | Miss |
| 40-Year JGB Auction | 3.865 | 3.84 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX | -8.3 | -8.1 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Tankan Large All Industry Capex | 11.5 | 3.3 | 1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CFTC JPY speculative net positions | -93.7 | -72.9 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Money Supply | 2275.3 | 2268.7 | — |
| 5-Year Climate Transition JGB Auction | 1.098 | 0.888 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| M2 Money Supply YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | In Line |
| 2-Year Note Yield | 0.011 | -0.062 | — |
| 5-Year Note Yield | 0.04 | -0.007 | — |
| All Industry Activity Index MoM | 1.3 | 6.8 | 1.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Leading Composite Index | 106.5 | 106 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Capital Spending YoY | 7.3 | 2.8 | -0.1 | Beat |
| Foreign investment in Japan stocks | 368.7 | — | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Foreign bond investment | 1614.8 | — | — |
| Corporate Service Price YoY | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.4 | Beat |
| Money Supply YoY | 3 | 2.9 | — |
| Vehicle Sales YoY | -15.6 | -12.2 | — |
