Manufacturing PMI

The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly factory survey covering Japan only. It polls purchasing managers at around 400 manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size to mirror GDP mix.

It covers manufacturing only, not services, and belongs to a global survey family covering more than 40 countries and regions. It is compiled by S&P Global and sponsored by au Jibun Bank. It differs from United States ISM factory data, official output statistics, and the quarterly Tankan survey.

Responses are collected in the second half of each reference month. A flash estimate appears inside the flash composite release about a week before final data. It is based on about 85% to 90% of responses.

Final manufacturing results are released at 09:30 JST (00:30 UTC) on the first day of the month after the reference month. Each release shows the headline, sub-indices, charts, and economist comment, while services and composite results appear in separate releases. Responses are never revised after publication, but updated seasonal factors can shift the adjusted series.

The headline blends five activity gauges, with demand carrying the most weight.

• New Orders, 30%: inflows of new work from domestic and export buyers.
• Output, 25%: production volumes during the reference month.
• Employment, 20%: staffing levels, showing hiring versus job cuts.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: vendor delivery speed, inverted so delays lift the index.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: pre-production inventories, showing stockpiling versus rundown.

In the 1 December 2020 release (November 2020 data) the headline rose from 48.7 in October to 49.0, the highest since August 2019. Data were collected 12-23 November 2020. Output and new orders fell for a 23rd straight month, but at the slowest pace since November 2019 and May 2019 respectively.

Export orders fell anew while domestic demand steadied, and about 33% of firms still expected higher output over the coming year.

1. Diffusion index (a 0 to 100 breadth score): For each variable, add the share reporting higher to half the share reporting no change. Example: 30% higher, 50% unchanged, and 20% lower gives 30 + 0.5 x 50 = 55.0.
2. Seasonal adjustment (correction for normal calendar swings): Each index is seasonally adjusted after calculation.
3. Headline PMI (weighted average of five adjusted indices): Combine 30% New Orders, 25% Output, 20% Employment, 15% inverted Delivery Times, and 10% Stocks of Purchases. For example, indices of 52.0, 51.0, 50.5, 52.0 (already inverted), and 49.0 give 51.2, above 50.