Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | 4.00 | 3.00 | +1.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 0.60 | 3.10 | -2.50 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 5.00 | 3.20 | +1.80 |
| May 28, 2026 | 2.80 | 1.30 | +1.50 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 1.40 | 0.80 | +0.60 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -0.10 | 0.80 | -0.90 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1.80 | -0.40 | +2.20 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | -0.90 | 0.70 | -1.60 |
| Dec 25, 2025 | 1.00 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 1.70 | 0.80 | +0.90 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.70 | -0.20 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | -1.10 | 1.00 | -2.10 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | 0.30 | 1.80 | -1.50 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.80 | +0.20 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.70 | -0.50 |
| May 29, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.50 | -0.40 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1.40 | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.20 | +0.50 |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2.80 | 1.30 | +1.50 |
| Nov 28, 2024 | 1.60 | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 0.50 | 2.30 | -1.80 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.30 | +0.50 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | 2.60 | 2.90 | -0.30 |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.30 | +0.40 |
| Jun 26, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.00 | +1.00 |
| May 30, 2024 | 2.40 | 1.90 | +0.50 |
| Apr 29, 2024 | 1.20 | 2.50 | -1.30 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 4.60 | 3.00 | +1.60 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 2.10 | 4.70 | -2.60 |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 5.30 | 5.00 | +0.30 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 4.20 | 5.90 | -1.70 |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 5.80 | 5.90 | -0.10 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | 7.00 | 6.60 | +0.40 |
| Aug 30, 2023 | 6.80 | 5.40 | +1.40 |
| Jul 30, 2023 | 5.90 | 5.90 | 0.00 |
| Jun 28, 2023 | 5.70 | 5.40 | +0.30 |
| May 30, 2023 | 5.00 | 7.00 | -2.00 |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 7.20 | 5.80 | +1.40 |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 6.60 | 5.80 | +0.80 |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 6.30 | 4.00 | +2.30 |
| Jan 30, 2023 | 3.80 | 3.00 | +0.80 |
| Dec 26, 2022 | 2.60 | 3.70 | -1.10 |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 4.30 | 5.00 | -0.70 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 4.50 | 4.10 | +0.40 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 4.10 | 2.80 | +1.30 |
| Aug 30, 2022 | 2.40 | 1.90 | +0.50 |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 1.50 | 2.80 | -1.30 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | 0.50 | 0.60 | +0.10 ↑ |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 5.30 | 5 | -0.30 ↓ |
| May 28, 2026 | 2.10 | 2.80 | +0.70 ↑ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.40 | -0.30 ↓ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.10 ↑ |
