The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook is a key component of the Bank of Japan's Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises. It reflects the future business sentiment and expected economic conditions of large companies within the service and non-manufacturing sectors. As Japan's economy relies heavily on domestic services, this indicator provides vital clues about future GDP growth and corporate spending.
The index is derived from a survey of thousands of Japanese firms. It is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting a 'pessimistic' outlook from those reporting an 'optimistic' outlook for the upcoming quarter.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | 28.00 | 30.00 | -2.00 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 28.00 | 29.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 27.00 | 29.00 | -2.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 28.00 | 29.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 28.00 | 30.00 | -2.00 |
| Jun 30, 2024 | 27.00 | 31.00 | -4.00 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 27.00 | 30.00 | -3.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 24.00 | 25.00 | -1.00 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 21.00 | 22.00 | -1.00 |
| Jul 2, 2023 | 20.00 | 21.00 | -1.00 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 15.00 | 16.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 11.00 | 16.00 | -5.00 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 11.00 | 15.00 | -4.00 |
| Jun 30, 2022 | 13.00 | 17.00 | -4.00 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 7.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 8.00 | 10.00 | -2.00 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | 3.00 | 5.00 | -2.00 |
