The Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index measures the business sentiment of large Japanese companies operating outside the manufacturing sector, including services, retail, and real estate. It is calculated as a diffusion index, subtracting the percentage of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones. As the service sector represents a significant portion of Japan's GDP, this index provides crucial insights into domestic demand and consumer behavior. It is released quarterly by the Bank of Japan and is closely watched by policymakers to gauge the health of the internal economy.
The index is derived from the BoJ's Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises. It is a 'Diffusion Index' (DI) calculated by taking the percentage of firms responding that business conditions are 'favorable' and subtracting the percentage of those responding 'unfavorable'.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 35.00 | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 37.00 | 35.00 | +2.00 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 34.00 | 35.00 | -1.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 35.00 | 33.00 | +2.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 33.00 | 32.00 | +1.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 34.00 | 32.00 | +2.00 |
| Jun 30, 2024 | 33.00 | 33.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 34.00 | 33.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 30.00 | 27.00 | +3.00 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 27.00 | 24.00 | +3.00 |
| Jul 2, 2023 | 23.00 | 22.00 | +1.00 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 19.00 | 17.00 | +2.00 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 14.00 | 13.00 | +1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2022 | 13.00 | 14.00 | -1.00 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 9.00 | 5.00 | +4.00 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 9.00 | 6.00 | +3.00 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | 2.00 | — | — |
