Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index

The index is the Business Conditions cell for large nonmanufacturing firms in the Tankan survey. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) compiles it through its Research and Statistics Department under the Statistics Act of 2007. It covers private firms with capital of 20 million yen or more.

Large means 1 billion yen or more, in 14 industries under the Japan Standard Industrial Classification, non-consolidated. Each firm judges its own general conditions mainly on its profits, with about 9,200 sampled firms from about 210,000 enterprises.

Replies are voluntary with response near 99%. The release groups firm replies only, with no Bank view and no output measure. Arabic financial media call it the Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report.

Surveys run in March, June, September and December. Forms go out 1 month before release. Replies cluster near a deadline 2 weeks later. Collection ends 1 business day before release.

Releases land at the start of April, July and October, and in mid-December, at 8:50 Japan Standard Time. That is just before market activity picks up near 9:00. Coming dates are set near each June and December end.

The Summary holds main figures, the Outline holds selected figures, and the full Data Set follows the next morning, with long time series online. Each release shows 13 judgement DIs plus capex, predicted exchange rates and inflation outlook, with prior forecasts in brackets.

Judgement DIs face no set revision round. Errors are fixed fast in principle, but post-release reply revisions stay printed. The sample is redrawn every 2 to 3 years, with the prior quarter shown pre and post revision.

The headline counts 1 firm as 1 vote, with no size weighting. The 13 judgement DIs for this group sit below in 6 lines:

• Business Conditions: each firm's verdict on its own conditions, mainly on its profits, with Favorable, Not so favorable and Unfavorable. It is the page headline.

• Domestic and Overseas Supply and Demand Conditions: industry demand balance for key goods and services at home and abroad.

• Inventories and Production Capacity: finished-goods and wholesalers' stock levels for now only, plus equipment adequacy.

• Employment Conditions and Financial Position: staff adequacy, and cash ease covering cash, bank stance and payment terms for now only.

• Lending Attitude, CP Issuance and Interest Rates: bank and CP terms for now only, plus rate change on 3 months past and next.

• Output and Input Prices: yen selling and buying price moves of Rise, Unchanged or Fall.

The December 2023 survey, released December 13, 2023, scored 30, up 3 from 27 in September 2023, after firms had forecast only 21. The same release guided 24 for March 2024, down 6, the usual cautious mix of rising actual and falling forecast.

Sample revision of March 5, 2024 restated December as 32, not 30. March 2024 printed 34, plus 2 on the revised base, not plus 4, with June 2024 at 27.

1. Answer: each firm picks 1 of 3 options for now and 3 months ahead. It strips seasonality by itself, with no statistical fix. Skipped replies and Not applicable answers leave that item count.

1. Share: within large nonmanufacturing, count the share picking option 1 (P1) and option 3 (P3). Round: round each share before maths, so rounded parts can miss the rounded total.

1. Subtract: DI equals P1 minus P3 in percentage points. Each firm holds 1 vote, with no size weighting. For 200 replies with 50 Favorable, 120 Not so favorable and 30 Unfavorable, shares are 25%, 60% and 15% for DI of 10 percentage points.

1. Separate track: sales, profits and capex use stratified population estimates, not this spread.