The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is a key quarterly economic indicator released by the Bank of Japan that measures the business confidence of large manufacturing companies. It is based on a comprehensive survey of thousands of Japanese enterprises, reflecting their views on current business conditions and future expectations. A positive reading indicates that optimistic businesses outnumber pessimistic ones, serving as a primary gauge for Japan's industrial health and potential shifts in monetary policy.
The index is calculated as a Diffusion Index (DI), which is the percentage of companies reporting 'favorable' business conditions minus the percentage reporting 'unfavorable' conditions. The survey covers approximately 10,000 companies, with the 'Large' category focusing on those with capital of 1 billion yen or more.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 23.00 | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 22.00 | 16.00 | +6.00 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 17.00 | 16.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 14.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 13.00 | 10.00 | +3.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 14.00 | 12.00 | +2.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2024 | 13.00 | 12.00 | +1.00 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 11.00 | 10.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 12.00 | 10.00 | +2.00 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 9.00 | 6.00 | +3.00 |
| Jul 2, 2023 | 5.00 | 3.00 | +2.00 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1.00 | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 7.00 | 6.00 | +1.00 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 8.00 | 11.00 | -3.00 |
| Jun 30, 2022 | 9.00 | 13.00 | -4.00 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 14.00 | 12.00 | +2.00 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 18.00 | 19.00 | -1.00 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | 18.00 | 13.00 | +5.00 |
