The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index is a key sentiment indicator derived from the Bank of Japan's Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises. It measures the business confidence of small-scale manufacturing firms, reflecting their outlook on current and future economic conditions. As small businesses represent a large portion of the Japanese economy, this index is a vital gauge of industrial health.
The index is calculated as a 'diffusion index' by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting 'unfavorable' conditions from those reporting 'favorable' conditions. The survey covers thousands of small manufacturing enterprises with capital typically between 20 million and 100 million yen.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 10.00 | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 9.00 | 4.00 | +5.00 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 6.00 | 2.00 | +4.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 1.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 1.00 | -1.00 | +2.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2.00 | -1.00 | +3.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1.00 | -2.00 | +3.00 |
| Jun 30, 2024 | -1.00 | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | -1.00 | -2.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1.00 | -4.00 | +5.00 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | -5.00 | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| Jul 2, 2023 | -5.00 | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | -6.00 | -6.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | -2.00 | -6.00 | +4.00 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | -4.00 | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2022 | -4.00 | -6.00 | +2.00 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | -4.00 | -7.00 | +3.00 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | -1.00 | -3.00 | +2.00 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | -3.00 | -9.00 | +6.00 |
