Gross Domestic Product YoY

Japan Gross Domestic Product YoY is the year-over-year change in real GDP from the Quarterly Estimates of GDP. The Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office compiles it for the whole economy on the expenditure side under the 2008SNA standard. It is not a survey with a sample but an integration of supply-side output data and demand-side spending surveys. The headline is chain-linked real GDP, while nominal GDP appears separately, and it does not measure industry output, national income, or welfare.

It covers calendar quarters, with fiscal-year figures alongside, and appears at 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time, sometimes delayed for operational reasons. Each quarter brings two vintages: a first preliminary about 45 days after quarter end and a second about 70 days later.

The first vintage extrapolates gaps with data on preliminary Balance of Payments day, while the second adds corporate statements. Each release shows components, contributions, income lines, and deflators. The second replaces the first with a mean revision of 0.19 points, folds in annual estimates, and revises series back to 1994Q1.

Annual GDP moves with private spending, public spending, and net exports, weighted by contribution in points.

• Private Consumption: household spending on durables, semi-durables, non-durables, and services, the largest demand block.
• Private Non-Residential Investment: plant, equipment, and research and development, joined by corporate data in the second vintage.
• Residential and Public Investment: home building and public fixed capital. The release groups them with non-residential as Gross Fixed Capital Formation.
• Change in Private and Public Inventories: stocks of materials, work in progress, and finished goods, the most volatile part. Missing months use model projections in the first vintage.
• Government Consumption: public spending on services.
• Net Exports of Goods and Services: exports minus imports, so strong imports subtract from growth.

The first vintage for July-September 2023 was released November 15, 2023. It showed real GDP down 0.5% on the quarter and 2.1% annualized, yet up 1.2% on the year. Domestic demand subtracted 0.4 points and net exports 0.1 points, with consumption at minus 0.0%, investment down 0.6%, exports up 0.5%, and imports up 1.0%.

The second vintage, released December 8, 2023, revised the quarter to down 0.7% and 2.9% annualized after folding in annual estimates. Consumption fell to minus 0.2%, housing to minus 0.5%, and inventories to minus 0.5 points. Nominal GDP sat flat at 0.0% on the quarter and annualized, while real GDP fell 0.7% as the deflator rose 0.7%.

1. Nominal estimation: Each component is estimated twice, from supply data and demand surveys, then averaged with a fixed integration ratio. Business equipment uses supply data alone in the first vintage. Missing months are extrapolated, and the second vintage adds corporate statements.
2. Demand sources: The first demand source is the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, and the second is quarterly corporate financial statements by industry.
3. Chain linking: Nominal values become real through chain-linked deflators built from about 400 items and consumer prices. The total deflator is implicit, and the base year moves from 2015 to 2020.
4. Benchmarking: Quarterly paths follow annual estimates proportionally for recent years, and contributions use the proportional Denton method.
5. Seasonal adjustment: Each series uses X-12-ARIMA picked by information criterion, with leap-year, tax, and pandemic markers back to 1994Q1. It comes from the United States Census Bureau, and missing parts use model projections for adjustment only.
6. Growth and contributions: Quarterly growth comes from the adjusted series and yearly growth from the original series, both times 100. The annualized rate repeats the quarter 4 times. Each part's contribution weights its prior-year nominal share, gaps spread proportionally, and net exports equal exports minus imports. For example, 540.0 then 537.3 gives down 0.5% and about down 2.0% annualized, while 531.0 a year earlier gives up 1.2%. A 55% share times down 0.2% gives about down 0.11 points.