GDP Private Consumption QoQ

GDP Private Consumption QoQ is Japan's Private Final Consumption Expenditure, shown as Private Consumption in quarterly GDP tables. It covers final spending by resident households plus nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH).

Residents' purchases abroad are added and nonresidents' purchases in Japan are subtracted. Transfers like dues, donations, cash gifts and remittances are excluded.

It excludes government consumption, capital formation, exports and imports; it is not monthly household spending. The series runs from the first quarter of 1994 and has no threshold as a chain-linked growth rate.

The Cabinet Office's Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) publishes a First Preliminary about 45 days after quarter end. The Second Preliminary follows about 70 days after quarter end, both at 8:50 a.m. JST. Release dates can shift with source schedules. The first vintage uses sources available when the preliminary Balance of Payments for the third month arrives, with gaps extrapolated.

The second vintage uses newer sources including corporate financial statements and revises the first. Each release brings GDP component tables, household type breakdowns, a technical note, full time series, seasonal details and a ministerial statement. Later vintages add annual estimates, the base is rebased every 5 years, and seasonally adjusted history back to 1994 is redone each release.

Spending splits into 4 types: households are the bulk and nonprofits a small remainder from wages or flat splits.

• Durable Goods: long-lasting goods such as autos, appliances and audio-visual and IT equipment.
• Semi-Durable Goods: shorter-lived goods such as clothes, shoes, books, games and toys.
• Non-Durable Goods: single-use goods such as food, drinks, tobacco, fuels and medicines.
• Services: rents, transport and telecom, medical and nursing care, education, dining and lodging, and Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM).

In the Second Preliminary released March 11, 2025 for the fourth quarter of 2024, real private consumption was flat at 0.0% quarter on quarter. Its contribution was 0.0 percentage points, down from 0.1% and 0.1 points in the February 17, 2025 First Preliminary. Nominal spending rose 0.2%, while calendar 2024 was -0.0% real and 2.3% nominal.

In the same round, real GDP was cut from 0.7% to 0.6% and the annualized rate from 2.8% to 2.2%. Net exports held 0.7 points, so the revision came from inventories and domestic demand and the early gain vanished.

1. Supply-side estimate: for each of 91 commodities, build quarterly shipments, add imports, subtract exports and stock change, and add margins. Multiply domestic supply by the distribution ratio to household consumption, with annual levels setting the base.
2. Demand-side estimate: extend the quarter from per-household spending in surveys of about 9,000 and 30,000 households times household counts. Levels adjust to a 57,000 household survey every 5 years, adding residents' spending abroad and subtracting visitors' in Japan. The quarterly series is benchmarked by the proportional Denton method.
3. Blended value: for parallel items, blend demand Cd and supply Cs as 0.3139 times Cd plus 0.6861 times Cs. For example, Cd 100.0 and Cs 102.0 give 31.39 plus 69.98, or 101.37. The weight was fitted by cutting growth gaps against annual estimates over 1995 to 2014 excluding 2000.
4. Real conversion: divide each item by its purpose-specific deflator from about 400 commodity deflators, then chain-aggregate the total. Nominal divided by real gives the implicit deflator.
5. Seasonal adjustment: the US Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA method selects orders by minimum AIC. Tax hike, recession and pandemic breaks are flagged, history to 1994 is redone, and FISIM stays unadjusted.
6. Headline rate: quarter change of the adjusted series as 100 times quarter divided by prior quarter minus 1. An annualized version sits alongside, while original data show year-on-year change and the contribution in points.