Balance of Trade

The Trade Statistics of Japan Balance of Trade measures goods exports minus goods imports cleared through customs, meaning approved at the border under customs law. The Ministry of Finance Japan Customs and Tariff Bureau compiles it from every customs declaration, meaning official trade paperwork, with no sample. Exports record final destination, meaning last receiving country, and imports record origin, meaning producing country, in units of 1000 yen rounded down. It covers only goods, not services trade, meaning cross border services, income flows, or balance of payments goods, which use different valuation and timing rules.

Annual series run from 1950.

Each release covers one clearance month, and Provisional estimates appear about 22 days after month end on calendar dates that can change with notice. Release is at 0850 Japan Standard Time and downloads open at 0930, with totals and change versus last year plus commodity, country and seasonal splits.

Later releases add indexes with half year and full year totals, then Detailed exports with 9 digit imports and Detailed imports one month later. Revised follows in March next year and Fixed in November next year, freezing the data and replacing earlier versions. Positive is surplus and negative is deficit.

The balance moves when export and import values change at different speeds.

• Exports: goods leaving Japan by final destination, valued FOB before freight and insurance, as the minuend, meaning starting amount.
• Imports: goods entering Japan by origin country, valued CIF with freight and insurance, as the subtrahend, meaning deducted amount.
• Principal commodities: groups of 9 digit goods, meaning classes, showing what moved the headline, such as autos and chips and fuel.
• Country and region breakdowns: destination and origin splits, such as Asia, China, the United States and the European Union, showing source of change.
• Seasonally adjusted exports imports and balance: reference series recomputed monthly over latest 120 months, shown beside unadjusted data.

In January 2014 Japan posted a deficit of 2790000 million yen, then the largest monthly loss on record. It was reported in the preliminary release of 20 February 2014. Exports were 5250000 million yen, up 9.5% year on year, while imports were 8040000 million yen, up 25% year on year to a record high. The lesson is that a record deficit can coexist with rising exports when fossil fuel import costs rise faster after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear shutdowns.

1. Customs declarations: Collect every export and import declaration cleared in the reference month under customs law.
2. Valuation: Value exports FOB before freight and insurance and imports CIF including freight and insurance in units of 1000 yen rounded down.
3. Totals and balance: Sum exports to total E and imports to total I, then subtract imports from exports so B equals E minus I. Positive is surplus and negative is deficit. For example E 5250000 million yen and I 8040000 million yen give B negative 2790000 million yen as deficit.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Separately compute seasonally adjusted balance, meaning smoothed for seasons, with X-12-ARIMA Release Version 0210 over latest 120 months and 48 month forecasts. Revise the method around March yearly.
5. Method settings: Apply RegARIMA models, meaning seasonal regression settings, 110011 for exports and 212112 for imports. They use level shifts for exports from February to May 2020 and May to September 2020, with outlier treatment. Use logarithmic transform with trading day and holiday effects.