Construction Orders YoY

Construction Orders YoY measures new construction contracts signed in Japan, not work already done and not housing starts. The publisher is the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). It belongs to the Construction Work Statistics Survey as Fundamental Statistics under the Statistics Act.

The integrated survey began in fiscal 2000 by merging three older surveys, and the Big 50 panel began in April 1985. The main survey covers about 12,000 licensed contractors, scaled to all such firms for work inside Japan only. The Big 50 panel covers about 50 large firms named by the minister, for work inside and outside Japan. Overseas work excludes local subsidiaries, and the panel never stands for the whole market.

Orders count at month end; regular firms report by the 10th of the next month. Governors forward checked forms by the 20th, and Big 50 firms report directly by the 20th. The main bulletin appears around the 10th of the second following month at 14:00 Japan time. Big 50 results appear around the end of the next month at 14:00.

Annual compilations arrive with December late in January, dates shift for holidays, and the schedule is published each year. The bulletin brings time series plus breakdowns by client, purpose, work type and prefecture. The Big 50 release adds a summary, a contribution table, seasonally adjusted series and charts. Since the April 2021 change, late reports that arrive in time join the current month and the rest join the annual compilation.

Each line adds its yen value to the headline.

• Prime-contract and subcontract orders: the two sum to total orders, with lower tiers inside subcontracts.

• Public-sector orders: orders from national and local bodies, with details for contracts of 5 million yen or more.

• Private-sector orders: orders from 11 client industries such as manufacturing, real estate and services.

• Work type: civil work plus building work and machinery installation.

• Contractor trade and region: general, specialty and equipment builders by contractor location and construction prefecture.

• Big 50 extras: overseas work plus executed work, backlog and backlog months, plus small and large jobs.

The July 2024 release, published August 30, 2024, lifted total orders 62.8% to ¥1,623,318 million after a 19.7% fall in June 2024. Private orders jumped 122.6% to ¥1,308,204 million as manufacturing rose 201.7%. Public orders fell 33.5% to ¥223,358 million, moving against the headline. The split explains sharp swings: lumpy private deals can outweigh public moves.

1. Population estimate: each sampled firm scales by inverse sampling and collection rates plus a non-response adjustment; the Big 50 panel never scales.

1. YoY change: YoY (%) = 100 x (Vt minus Vt-12) / Vt-12, where Vt is orders and Vt-12 is orders a year earlier. For example, July 2023 at ¥997,318 million versus July 2024 at ¥1,623,318 million gives 62.8%.

1. Seasonal adjustment: Big 50 only, using Census X-12-ARIMA, re-estimated each year with the December release.

Orders count when contracts are signed, so a rise means future pipeline, not done work. Big 50 sums cover the panel alone, and levels before April 2021 need a break note.