The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy, often referred to as Core Inflation, measures the annual change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, closely monitor this indicator because it provides a clearer picture of long-term underlying inflation trends by removing temporary price shocks. A higher-than-expected reading is generally considered hawkish for the currency, as it may lead to higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower reading suggests subdued price pressures and a more dovish monetary policy outlook.
The indicator is calculated by taking the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and removing the components related to food and energy. The year-over-year (YoY) percentage change is then derived by comparing the current month's core index value to the same month in the previous year.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 1.90 | 1.70 | +0.20 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 1.70 | 2.00 | -0.30 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
| May 21, 2026 | 1.90 | 2.40 | -0.50 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.10 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| May 22, 2025 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.30 | +0.30 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.60 | -0.10 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2.40 | 2.30 | +0.10 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.00 | +0.30 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.30 | -0.40 |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.00 | +0.20 |
| Jun 20, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.30 | -0.20 |
| May 23, 2024 | 2.40 | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2.90 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.20 | +0.30 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.80 | -0.10 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3.80 | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 4.20 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Sep 21, 2023 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| Aug 17, 2023 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | 4.30 | 4.20 | +0.10 |
| May 18, 2023 | 4.10 | 3.90 | +0.20 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | 3.80 | 3.60 | +0.20 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3.50 | 3.30 | +0.20 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3.20 | 3.00 | +0.20 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2.80 | 2.70 | +0.10 |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2.50 | 2.00 | +0.50 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Sep 19, 2022 | 1.60 | 1.20 | +0.40 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | 1.20 | 0.90 | +0.30 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 1.00 | 0.80 | +0.20 |
| Jun 23, 2022 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| May 19, 2022 | 0.80 | -0.40 | +1.20 |
