The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) is a composite index that tracks the current state of the economy by combining four key indicators that move in tandem with the business cycle. These components include nonfarm payrolls, personal income, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales. It is used to identify the peaks and troughs of economic cycles in real-time. Unlike leading indicators, the coincident index tells us where the economy is right now.
The index is calculated by The Conference Board as a weighted average of four components: Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Personal income less transfer payments, Industrial production, and Manufacturing and trade sales.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | — | 118.80 | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 118.50 | 118.20 | +0.30 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 118.20 | — | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 117.90 | 118.50 | -0.60 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 118.50 | 118.40 | +0.10 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 118.10 | 117.90 | +0.20 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 117.90 | 116.20 | +1.70 |
| May 26, 2026 | 116.40 | 116.50 | -0.10 |
| May 12, 2026 | 116.50 | 112.00 | +4.50 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 116.20 | 116.30 | -0.10 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 116.30 | 118.30 | -2.00 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 117.90 | 116.80 | +1.10 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 116.80 | 114.50 | +2.30 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 114.30 | 114.50 | -0.20 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 114.50 | 115.30 | -0.80 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 114.90 | 115.20 | -0.30 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 115.20 | 116.20 | -1.00 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 115.90 | 115.40 | +0.50 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 115.40 | 114.90 | +0.50 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 114.60 | 114.60 | 0.00 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 114.60 | 113.50 | +1.10 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 112.80 | 113.40 | -0.60 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 113.40 | 114.00 | -0.60 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 114.10 | 113.30 | +0.80 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 113.30 | 117.20 | -3.90 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 116.70 | 116.80 | -0.10 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 116.80 | 116.00 | +0.80 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 116.00 | 115.90 | +0.10 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | 115.90 | 116.20 | -0.30 |
| Jun 25, 2025 | 116.00 | 115.50 | +0.50 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 115.50 | 115.70 | -0.20 |
| May 26, 2025 | 115.90 | 116.00 | -0.10 |
| May 9, 2025 | 116.00 | 116.10 | -0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 117.30 | 116.90 | +0.40 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 116.90 | 115.80 | +1.10 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 116.10 | 116.20 | -0.10 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 116.20 | 117.00 | -0.80 |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 116.40 | 116.80 | -0.40 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 116.80 | 115.90 | +0.90 |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 115.40 | 115.30 | +0.10 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 115.30 | 117.00 | -1.70 |
| Dec 25, 2024 | 116.80 | 116.50 | +0.30 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 116.50 | 114.90 | +1.60 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 115.30 | 115.70 | -0.40 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 115.70 | 115.30 | +0.40 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 114.00 | 113.50 | +0.50 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 113.50 | 117.00 | -3.50 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 117.20 | 117.10 | +0.10 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 117.10 | 114.00 | +3.10 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | 113.20 | 113.70 | -0.50 |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 113.70 | 117.30 | -3.60 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | 116.4 | 116.4 | 0 ↓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 116.3 | 116.2 | -0.10 ↓ |
