The Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook is a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan that measures the future business expectations of the country's largest manufacturing firms. It serves as a leading indicator for the health of the Japanese export-oriented economy and influences monetary policy decisions. A positive reading indicates that more firms expect business conditions to improve than worsen over the next three months.
The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies responding that future business conditions will be 'unfavorable' from those responding 'favorable.' The survey targets large enterprises with capital of 1 billion yen or more.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 18.00 | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 17.00 | 13.00 | +4.00 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 14.00 | 13.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 15.00 | 13.00 | +2.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 12.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 12.00 | 9.00 | +3.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 12.00 | 9.00 | +3.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 13.00 | 11.00 | +2.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 14.00 | 13.00 | +1.00 |
| Jun 30, 2024 | 14.00 | 13.00 | +1.00 |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 10.00 | 11.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 8.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 10.00 | 5.00 | +5.00 |
| Jul 2, 2023 | 9.00 | 5.00 | +4.00 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3.00 | 4.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 9.00 | 11.00 | -2.00 |
| Jun 30, 2022 | 10.00 | 14.00 | -4.00 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 9.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 13.00 | 19.00 | -6.00 |
| Sep 30, 2021 | 14.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 |
