Household Spending MoM

Household Spending MoM is the month on month % change of seasonally adjusted (seasonality removed) real (inflation adjusted) consumption spending. It comes from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) (a national diary survey), run by the Statistics Bureau of Japan since September 1950.

The survey covers Japan nationwide since July 1962, including Okinawa from 1972, using about 9000 households in 168 municipalities. That covers 52700000 households or 94.4 percent of all households. The headline covers spending per 2-or-more-person household, not store sales: it includes all outlets and services but excludes firms, taxes, premiums and student one-person households.

Households record daily income and spending through the calendar reference month, and results are published monthly about 5 to 8 weeks later. Release is at 0830 Japan Standard Time, with dates preannounced and sometimes shifted around holidays and year end. Each release includes workers household income and spending, summary budget tables and seasonally adjusted series via e-Stat, plus quarterly one-person and total household results. Figures are revised when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (price gauge) base changes, and higher real MoM signals stronger momentum while lower signals weaker momentum.

Moves come from 10 spending groups plus workers household income below.

• Food: cereals, fish, meat, dairy, vegetables, fruit, oils, confectionery, prepared food and beverages.
• Housing, fuel, light and water charges: rents, dwelling outlays, electricity, gas and water.
• Furniture and household utensils, clothing and footwear: appliances, furniture, housekeeping goods, garments, footwear and clothing services.
• Medical care: medicines, health goods and medical services.
• Transportation and communication, education, culture and recreation: transport, telecom, tuition, leisure goods, services and books.
• Other consumption expenditures and workers income: personal care, gifts, remittances plus workers wages and salaries.

Japan raised consumption tax from 8% to 10% on October 1, 2019, so households rushed to buy in September 2019. September spending rose 9.5% from a year earlier and 5.5% on a seasonally adjusted real monthly basis.

October 2019 payback then cut average spending to 279671 yen, down 4.8% nominal and 5.1% real from a year earlier. That was the first decline in 11 months, with a real monthly fall of 11.5%. A large typhoon that shut shops compounded the tax effect, showing why one monthly print needs context.

1. Recording: Each sampled household logs daily income and spending in a family account book.
2. Averaging: Responses are tabulated into average monthly receipts and spending per 2-or-more-person household by district, income group and use.
3. Deflating: Nominal (before inflation) averages are deflated with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to give real spending. Real series use headline CPI and CPI excluding imputed rent.
4. Month on month change: MoM equals 100 times current minus prior divided by prior, using seasonally adjusted real averages. January 2018 and January 2019 use discontinuity adjusted figures. For example, 280000 yen rising to 281400 yen equals 0.5%.