Consumer Confidence

Japan Consumer Confidence Index measures household expectations for the next 6 months, never actual spending. The Cabinet Office runs this survey through its Economic and Social Research Institute, active since 1957 and near its current form since April 2004. Its survey arm covers about 54.11 million households using 3-level stratified random sampling. The sample holds 8400 households, with 5376 holding two or more persons and 3024 one person households, and 1 in 15 is replaced each month.

The survey collects answers on the 15th of each month by mail and online response. Results come early in the next month at 14:00 Japan time, 9 hours ahead of UTC. Each release prints the 4 headline gauges plus asset views, price outlooks, answer shares, and time series tables on a provisional schedule. Seasonally adjusted values revise once a year with the March release from April 2013 onward, while original figures stay fixed.

4 equally weighted gauges move the headline, while side series add context.

• Overall livelihood, 25%: expected household livelihood over the next 6 months.
• Income growth, 25%: expected household income growth over the next 6 months.
• Employment, 25%: expected job environment over the next 6 months.
• Willingness to buy durable goods, 25%: whether the next 6 months suit big item purchases.
• Asset value: expected asset values, surveyed monthly but outside the headline.

The February 2024 survey, conducted February 15, 2024 and released March 1, 2024, scored 39.1, up 1.1 from January 2024. Employment led at 44.3, followed by income growth at 40.8, livelihood at 37.6, and willingness to buy durables at 33.5. The math was (37.6 + 40.8 + 44.3 + 33.5) / 4 = 39.05, shown as 39.1. Asset value hit 45.2 outside the headline while 91.5 in 100 households expected price rises.

1. 5 point answers: households rate 5 subjects, livelihood, income, employment, durables, and asset value, for the next 6 months on a 5-point scale.
2. Perception index: each answer share converts to points: 1, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25, and 0 from best to worst.
3. Headline average: the index averages the 4 headline gauges and drops asset value. For example, the 4 sum to 156.2 and (37.6 + 40.8 + 44.3 + 33.5) / 4 = 39.05, shown as 39.1.
4. Seasonal adjustment: X-12-ARIMA smooths regular seasonal swings using set models, (011)(011) except employment (110)(100), and X-11 for asset value.
5. Total households: combined figures weight each household group by its share of all households, published for total households on e-Stat.