The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several individual economic indicators that typically lead changes in the overall economy, such as building permits, stock prices, and consumer expectations. A rising index suggests economic expansion in the coming months, while a declining trend can signal a potential recession.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, new orders, and interest rate spreads, adjusted for volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 0.70 | — | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 0.70 | 0.50 | +0.20 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 0.50 | — | — |
| May 26, 2026 | 0.80 | 1.30 | -0.50 |
| May 12, 2026 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 1.30 | 0.30 | +1.00 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 0.30 | — | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1.70 | 2.10 | -0.40 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1.10 | 0.30 | +0.80 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 0.30 | — | — |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 0.10 | 0.70 | -0.60 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 0.70 | 1.80 | -1.10 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 0.90 | 1.30 | -0.40 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 1.10 | 0.80 | +0.30 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 0.80 | — | — |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 0.80 | 1.30 | -0.50 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 0.60 | 1.10 | -0.50 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Jun 25, 2025 | -3.40 | -4.20 | +0.80 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | -4.20 | — | — |
| May 26, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.50 | +0.40 |
| May 9, 2025 | -0.50 | — | — |
| Apr 30, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 0.40 | 0.10 | +0.30 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 0.50 | 1.10 | -0.60 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Jan 27, 2025 | -1.60 | -2.10 | +0.50 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | -2.10 | — | — |
| Dec 25, 2024 | 0.20 | -0.30 | +0.50 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Oct 25, 2024 | -2.40 | -2.60 | +0.20 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | -2.60 | — | — |
| Jun 7, 2024 | -0.10 | — | — |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Mar 8, 2024 | -0.60 | — | — |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0 ↓ |
