GDP Growth Annualized

The indicator is quarter-on-quarter change in seasonally adjusted real GDP, shown with its annualized rate in brackets. It is published in the Quarterly Estimates of GDP by the Cabinet Office of Japan. Its Economic and Social Research Institute compiles it under the Japanese National Accounts on the 2008SNA standard. It covers all of Japan by the expenditure approach from many sources, with no single sample.

It is not year-on-year growth, not nominal values, and not a welfare measure. Nominal values, real GDI, real GNI and compensation publish as separate items. Arabic financial coverage phrases readings as growth at an annual rate.

Each calendar quarter gets two estimates, about 45 days and about 70 days after quarter end. That is about 6 weeks and about 10 weeks respectively. Release time is 8:50 AM JST, and dates can shift with source statistics schedules.

Each release shows real and nominal levels, quarterly change with its annual rate, contributions, capital formation, final sales, real income, and compensation.

The second revises the first with fuller corporate data, and later releases revise nominal originals for years and real originals further back. Seasonal adjustment reruns the full history from the first quarter of 1994 in each release. The publisher sets no target since zero is the dividing line. Commentary reads sign and size with the annual rate in brackets, splitting domestic demand from net exports.

Spending parts move the headline through contributions in points, with each contribution shown in brackets beside its growth rate. Weights are not fixed because chain-linking resets them each period.

• Private consumption: household spending on goods and services, the largest demand item.
• Private residential investment: household investment in dwellings.
• Private non-residential investment: business spending on plant and equipment.
• Change in private inventories: finished goods, work in progress, materials and distribution stocks, volatile and partly projected in the first estimate.
• Public demand: government consumption and public investment, with all three investments forming gross fixed capital formation.
• Net exports of goods and services: exports minus imports, so strong exports add points and falling imports also lift growth.

In the second quarter of 2024 growth rebounded to 0.8 percent on quarter, or 3.1 percent annualized, in the first estimate. That vintage appeared August 15, 2024 after a 0.6 percent first-quarter contraction. Private consumption grew 1.0 percent for 0.5 point and public investment grew 4.5 percent for 0.2 point, while net exports gave minus 0.1 point. Exports grew 1.4 percent and imports 1.7 percent.

The second estimate of September 9, 2024 cut growth to 0.7 percent, or 2.9 percent annualized. It put consumption at 0.9 percent and public investment at 4.1 percent. Annualizing magnifies small moves, revisions shift about 0.1 point on corporate data, and a positive headline can hide external drag.

1. Nominal values: Start from the latest annual levels with proportional Denton benchmarking to source series. Extrapolate the newest quarter from demand surveys and supply flow data, integrate both, and fill first estimate gaps with tentative values.
2. Real conversion: Divide nominal by item deflators and aggregate with chained Laspeyres links at 2015 base.
3. Seasonal adjustment: Adjust original real and nominal series with X-12-ARIMA and provisional outlier terms past 99 percent. Rerun the full history from the first quarter of 1994 in each release.
4. Growth and annualizing: Quarterly growth divides GDP by the prior quarter, minus 1, times 100, on seasonally adjusted real data. The annual rate compounds that quarter four times, the pace if it lasted four quarters, and prints beside the quarterly figure. Levels of 554.1 then 558.1 trillion yen give 0.7 percent on quarter and 2.9 percent annualized, while times four gives only about 2.8 percent.