Currency
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Eurostat 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 2.4 | 2.65 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.638 | 2.531 | — |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 2.827 | 2.81 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 12-Month Bill Auction | 3.109 | 3.127 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | In Line | ||
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | In Line | ||
| 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | In Line | |||
| Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | In Line | ||
| 104.31 | 103.73 | 104.3 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| CPI YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | |||
| 8.2 | 5.8 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | In Line | ||
| Employment Change QoQ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | In Line | ||
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3.1 | 3.2 | 3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | In Line |
| 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1.3 | — | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0 | 0.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1 | 0.5 | 1 | In Line | |||
| 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | In Line | |||
| -0.9 | -0.6 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Output YoY | -2 | -1.4 | -1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Construction Output MoM | 0 | -1.53 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 43.4 | 43 | 43 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -16.5 | -15.5 | -16.5 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -2.43 | -1.99 | -3 | Beat | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 97.9 | 98.4 | 99 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 25.8 | 31.4 | 39.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 6.1 | 5.6 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -16.1 | 10.7 | 14.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 1 | 12.7 | 6.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 36.5 | 46.9 | 36 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Current Account SA | 27.6 | 35.1 | 30.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 52.9 | 52.7 | 52.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Services PMI | 53 | 51.6 | 53 | In Line | ||
| Composite PMI | 53.1 | 52 | 53.1 | In Line | ||
| -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.5 | -0.3 | 0 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| -3.8 | -5 | -4.7 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 51.8 | 51.7 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Budget | -3.7 | -4.2 | -3.5 | Miss | ||
| Government Debt to GDP | 87.8 | 87 | 87.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -2.9 | -3 | -3.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.142 | 2.307 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 3.38 | 3.284 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 2.33 | 2.805 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 20-Year Bond Auction | 3.786 | 3.287 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 15-Year Bond Auction | 3.284 | 3.268 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Price Expectations | 20.3 | 16.9 | 25 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Business Climate | -0.06 | -0.24 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3.613 | 2.808 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| M3 Money Supply | 17646.5 | 17614 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | In Line | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Private sector loans YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | Miss | ||
| New Car Sales YoY (Aug) | 4.5 | 3 |
| Beat |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Producer Price Index MoM | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | In Line |
| Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | In Line |
| Consumer Inflation Expectation | 35.2 | 33 | 40 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Inflation Rate | 104.31 | 103.69 | 104.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| CES Inflation Expectation | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Miss |
| Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Loans to Households YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | Miss |
| — |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year Bond Auction | 2.982 | 2.821 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 30-Year Bond Auction | 3.399 | 3.78 | — |
| 7-Year Bond Auction | 2.868 | 0.804 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 18-Year Bond Auction | 3.47 | 3.128 | — |
| 2-Year Bond Auction | 3.38 | — | — |
| 11 |
| Miss |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Sales YoY | 3 | 13.6 | 7.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| HICP MoM | 0.2 | 0 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| HICP YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC EUR speculative net positions | -7.5 | 0.5 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Marginal Lending Rate | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | In Line |
| Deposit Facility Rate | 2 | 2 | 2 | In Line |
| Money Supply | 17344.7 | 17230.7 | — |
| Private sector loans | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | Miss |
| New Car Registrations YoY | -3.9 | 5.8 | -4.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| EU Bond Auction | 2.244 | 2.128 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Bond Auction | 3.913 | 3.983 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Loan Growth YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | In Line |
| Quantitative Easing | 80 | 60 | 70 | Beat |
| Private Loans YoY | -0.1 | — | 0.1 | Miss |
