Currency
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Eurostat 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | In Line | |||
| 2.533 | 2.532 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.4 | 2.371 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 12-Month Bill Auction | 2.704 | 2.724 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 103.7 | 103.24 | 103.6 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI MoM | 2.9 | 0.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 4.6 | 5.9 | 4.6 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.3 | In Line | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | Beat | ||
| Employment Change QoQ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | In Line | ||
| 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3 | 3.2 | 3 | In Line | |||
| 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | Miss | |||
| 1.3 | — | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | In Line | ||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | In Line | ||
| 1 | 0.5 | 1 | In Line | |||
| 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | In Line | |||
| -0.9 | -0.6 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Output YoY | -0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Construction Output MoM | -1.34 | 0.19 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 44.3 | 42.8 | 43.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -15.5 | -15.9 | -15.5 | In Line | |||
| -2.43 | -1.99 | -3 | Beat | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 98.4 | 97.1 | 97.5 | Beat |
| 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3.1 | 3 | 2.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.9 | -3.1 | -0.7 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 8.6 | -9 | -2.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | 1 | 12.7 | 6.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 46.9 | -6.1 | 32 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 51.9 | 52.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | Beat | ||
| Composite PMI | 52.1 | 52 | 51.7 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| -5.3 | -6.1 | -5.2 | Miss | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 51.8 | 51.7 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Budget | -3.7 | -4.2 | -3.5 | Miss | ||
| Government Debt to GDP | 87.8 | 87 | 87.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -2.9 | -3 | -3.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.142 | 2.307 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 3.38 | 3.284 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 2.33 | 2.805 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 20-Year Bond Auction | 3.786 | 3.287 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 15-Year Bond Auction | 3.284 | 3.268 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| HICP MoM | 0.2 | 0 | — | |||
| 3.246 | 2.98 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| -0.22 | -0.19 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 16.4 | 17.8 | 25 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| 4.4 | 4 | 3.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| M3 Money Supply | 17614 | 17610.9 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Private sector loans YoY | 3.1 | 3 | 2.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33 | 30.4 | 36 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 10-Year Bond Auction | 2.982 | 2.821 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 30-Year Bond Auction | 3.399 | 3.78 | — |
| 7-Year Bond Auction | 2.868 | 0.804 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 18-Year Bond Auction | 3.47 | 3.128 | — |
| 2-Year Bond Auction | 3.38 | — | — |
| M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | In Line | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Sales YoY | 13.6 | 3.2 | 9.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CFTC EUR speculative net positions | -7.5 | 0.5 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Marginal Lending Rate | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | In Line |
| Deposit Facility Rate | 2 | 2 | 2 | In Line |
| Money Supply | 17344.7 | 17230.7 | — |
| Private sector loans | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | Miss |
| New Car Registrations YoY | -3.9 | 5.8 | -4.8 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| EU Bond Auction | 2.244 | 2.128 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Bond Auction | 3.913 | 3.983 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Loan Growth YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | In Line |
| Quantitative Easing | 80 | 60 | 70 | Beat |
| Private Loans YoY | -0.1 | — | 0.1 | Miss |
