Sentix Investors Sentiment

The Sentix Economic Index is a private monthly sentiment gauge for the euro area. Its common short name is sentix investor confidence. Private sentix GmbH runs it in the Global Investor Survey. The series started in 2003, in a survey running since 2001.

Each monthly poll draws about 900 to 1,000 investors from over 20 countries, from a base of more than 5,000 registered private and institutional investors. They judge each economy, not own portfolios. Results show investor perceptions, which guide asset allocation and can differ from actual output. That makes it a leading gauge for growth and turning points.

Responses are collected online over 3 days, Thursday to Saturday, in the first week of the reference month. Results appear the next Monday, about 1 day after the poll closes. Data are available at 8:00 a.m. Central European time, under embargo until 10:30 a.m.

Each release gives the headline and both parts for each region, with a split of participants. Each release also adds a 6-month history, a regime table, charts, barometers and the clock, as final values with no stated revisions.

The headline blends 2 parts, with group splits and 2 theme gauges adding context.

• Current situation (H0): shows how investors rate present euro area conditions.
• Economic expectations (H6): shows expected growth 6 months ahead from present conditions.
• Investor-group splits: show headline, situation and expectations for all, institutional and individual investors. Institutional expectations often turn first.
• Theme barometers: track central-bank policy room and inflation views. They are compiled with the poll as context, not headline parts.

The October 7, 2024 release showed the textbook split. The headline rose 1.6 points from -15.4 to -13.8 after 3 falls. The situation fell 0.8 points to -23.3, a yearly low and a fourth straight fall. Expectations rose for a second month to -3.8 from -8.0.

The headline rose only because expectations rebounded while present conditions kept worsening. The poll ran October 3 to 5, 2024 among 1,150 investors, including 220 institutional investors. The publisher linked the lift to ECB rate cuts and China stimulus, with Asia excluding Japan firming. The euro area regime stayed Downturn.

1. Survey answers: Investors rate current conditions and 6-month outlook on 5 steps from ++ (very good or improve) to -- (very bad or worsen). The first asks about the present, the second about 6 months ahead.
2. Sub-indices (situation H0 and expectations H6): Code each answer 1 to 5, take the mean, subtract from 3 and multiply by 50. A mean of 3.15 gives -7.5. Full agreement gives +100 or -100, and neutral gives 0.
3. Overall index: Overall = √(H0 + 200) × √(H6 + 200) - 200. With H0 at -7.5 and H6 at +7.5, the roots are 192.5 and 207.5, and the result is about -0.1 points.
4. Scale and regimes: 0 is neutral, and ±100 mean full agreement. The economy clock maps situation against expectations into Boom, Downturn, Recession or Upswing. A 10-point gap marks a clear regime, and a turn counts only after 3 same-direction moves in a row.