Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is DG ECFIN's monthly gauge of EU household optimism. It belongs to the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS), run with national institutes through harmonised questionnaires and a common timetable. Each month more than 40000 consumers take part across the EU, with effective samples of 34000 at EU level and 21000 at euro-area level. Non-response lowers nominal samples, while effective samples count completed interviews. Country results aggregate by private final consumption shares. It tracks opinions on the next 12 months only, not spending, retail sales, business mood or the broad Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). It is not the US Conference Board index, which covers US households with a different method.

Fieldwork covers the first two to three weeks of the reference period under a cut-off rule, so the flash uses partial returns. The flash is a short standalone release with EU and euro-area headlines and point changes. It adds a chart against the long-term average, a coverage footnote and a release-policy note. It carries no country or component breakdown. Full consumer results follow within the complete Business and Consumer Survey release with detailed tables, plus long time series files and a quarterly cycle report. Country weights use private final consumption shares smoothed as a two-year moving average under a fixed annual refresh cycle. Seasonally adjusted series revise slightly across vintages, while unadjusted data stay fixed, and aggregates and components revise together.

The headline averages four equal forward-looking gauges, each with 25% weight, so each can pull it up or down.

• Household finances (Q2), 25%: expected household financial position over the next 12 months; captures income optimism.
• General economy (Q4), 25%: expected general economic situation of the country over the next 12 months; captures macro hope or fear.
• Unemployment fear (Q7), 25%: expected number of unemployed over the next 12 months, inverted so higher fear lowers the headline.
• Saving likelihood (Q11), 25%: likelihood of saving money over the next 12 months; captures buffer-building intent.

For example, one flash release fell by 3.5 points in the EU and 3.8 points in the euro area. It reached -29.9 and -28.8, a record low. Coverage reached 26 countries and about 98% of private final consumption. A following flash rose by 0.6 points in the EU and 1.2 points in the euro area. It reached -29.0 and -27.6, still near the low, after small seasonal revisions. The lesson: negative means pessimists outweigh optimists, not shrinking spending; readings count against the moving average, not zero, and flash is partial.

1. Reply shares: Answers split into very positive (PP), positive (P), neutral (E), negative (M), very negative (MM) and do not know (N), totalling 100.
2. Question balance: Each balance is B = (PP + 0.5 x P) minus (0.5 x M + MM), from -100 to 100. Versions with 3 options use B = P minus M, while versions with 6 options use the full form.
3. Consumption weighting: National shares blend by private final consumption, smoothed over 2 years under a fixed annual refresh. Each EU balance then derives from blended shares.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Balances are seasonally adjusted at country, EU and euro-area level using the Dainties method.
5. Headline average: CCI = (B2 + B4 + -B7 + B11) / 4, with unemployment flipped. For example, balances of -0.5, -6.0, -4.5 already flipped, and -2.0 average to -13.0 / 4 = -3.3 points. Weighting illustration: weights 0.7 and 0.3 on balances -10 and -20 give 0.7 x -10 plus 0.3 x -20 = -13.0.