Balance of Trade

The EU trade balance in goods is the monthly short-term indicator from ITGS (International trade in goods statistics), the EU programme compiled by Eurostat. It covers extra-EU trade only, meaning the EU as one entity trading with the rest of the world. Goods means movable property, including electricity, measured in million euro monthly and billion euro annually. Services are excluded.

It is not a sample survey. It draws on customs declarations for non-EU trade and monthly trader declarations for trade between members, with estimates where declarations are missing. The EU aggregate is not the sum of the 27 members balances, since each member also counts trade between members. The balance is exports minus imports.

Above 0 is a surplus and below 0 is a deficit, in a purely numerical sense. The publisher gives no trading signal. Direction of change and product and partner drivers are shown descriptively. The total goods balance is one major component of the balance of payments, not the full system.

The reference period is the calendar period of export or import. For trade with non-EU countries it is the period when the customs declaration is accepted. For trade between members it follows the period when tax becomes chargeable. Members send aggregated data within 40 days, with detailed data on trade between members within 70 days.

Eurostat publishes first results around 46 days after the reference period at 11 in Central European Time, on a day announced in advance. First figures are provisional and are revised as further declarations replace estimates. Revisions correct errors, improve completeness, and replace estimates with collected data. Each release also updates product, partner and Member State tables plus series adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects.

The publisher splits the unweighted balance into SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) product groups, each moving the total euro for euro.

• Food and drink: the surplus side from trade in food and drink products.
• Raw materials: the small deficit side from trade in raw materials.
• Energy: the dominant deficit line, whose swings can move the whole headline.
• Chemicals: a large surplus line from trade in chemical products.
• Machinery and vehicles: the largest surplus line, from machinery and vehicle trade.
• Other manufactured goods: a near-balanced line, often a small deficit.

One annual release recorded a deficit of 432 billion euro, the lowest point since the start of the series. The publisher linked it to a steep rise in energy import values. In that episode imports rose by 41% and exports rose by 18%, so the import surge set the balance. Partner flows add in the same way.

1. Collect flows: Customs declarations capture trade with non-EU countries as a near-total administrative source. Monthly trader declarations capture trade between members, with estimates for small traders.
2. Value at the border: Each flow takes its statistical value at the national border. Exports use FOB (Free On Board, freight and insurance inside the exporter only). Imports use CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight, outside the importer).
3. Add up the EU: EU exports equal the sum of members non-EU exports. EU imports equal the sum of members non-EU imports. The balance is exports minus imports.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Eurostat processes raw data in JDemetra+ using the TRAMO-SEATS procedure, rebuilding EU totals from members. Both unadjusted and adjusted series are published.
5. Publish and illustrate: Monthly values appear in million euro with growth rates in the Euro-indicators release. Annual totals appear in billion euro. As a toy illustration, EU exports total 200 billion euro and imports total 190 billion euro, so the balance is 10 billion euro, a surplus.