This indicator measures the median expectation of consumers regarding the inflation rate over the next 12 months. It is based on the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Policymakers monitor these figures closely as inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling by influencing wage negotiations and spending behavior.
The data is derived from a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. It calculates the median point estimate of expected inflation over a one-year horizon based on consumer responses.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 33.00 | 36.00 | -3.00 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.10 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 30.30 | 38.00 | -7.70 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.70 | -0.70 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 34.00 | 42.00 | -8.00 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.90 | -0.40 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| May 28, 2026 | 40.50 | 55.00 | -14.50 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 48.80 | 48.00 | +0.80 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 4.00 | 2.90 | +1.10 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 43.40 | 32.00 | +11.40 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2.60 | 2.90 | -0.30 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 25.80 | 22.00 | +3.80 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 24.10 | 25.00 | -0.90 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 26.70 | 23.60 | +3.10 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 23.10 | 20.00 | +3.10 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 21.90 | 26.00 | -4.10 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.70 | -0.10 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | 25.90 | 29.00 | -3.10 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 25.10 | 20.00 | +5.10 |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.90 | -0.30 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 2.80 | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 21.20 | 22.00 | -0.80 |
| May 28, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| May 27, 2025 | 23.60 | 30.60 | -7.00 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 29.60 | 25.10 | +4.50 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 24.40 | 19.00 | +5.40 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2.60 | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 21.10 | 20.90 | +0.20 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.20 | +0.60 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 20.20 | 22.00 | -1.80 |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 21.00 | 17.80 | +3.20 |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2.50 | 2.70 | -0.20 |
| Nov 28, 2024 | 17.70 | 12.50 | +5.20 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 13.30 | 10.70 | +2.60 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2.40 | 1.90 | +0.50 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 10.90 | 11.20 | -0.30 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | 11.30 | 11.00 | +0.30 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 11.20 | 13.10 | -1.90 |
| Jul 26, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.70 | +0.10 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.10 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 13.10 | 11.30 | +1.80 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | 49.1 | 48.8 | -0.30 ↓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 25.8 | 2.50 | -23.3 ↓ |
