Euro-area annual inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the 20 countries that use the euro, published by Eurostat. Eurostat releases a flash estimate at the start of the month after the reference month and the final figure about two weeks later; the ECB targets 2% on this measure.
Annual rate = (euro-area HICP index for the month / index for the same month a year earlier - 1) x 100, computed on the euro-area aggregate index. Country weights are each member's share of euro-area HICP household final monetary consumption expenditure, updated every year, and the index is chain-linked annually. The flash estimate uses early price data from the member states and is replaced by the final figure about two weeks later.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.60 | +0.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2.80 | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 2.60 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.60 | -0.10 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1.90 | 1.70 | +0.20 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.20 | -0.10 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.10 | -0.10 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| May 19, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| May 2, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2.30 | 2.40 | -0.10 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.30 | +0.10 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.40 | +0.10 |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1.70 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
The latest reading is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean.
