Negotiated Wage Growth

The Indicator of negotiated wage rates (INWR), dataset INW, is experimental quarterly statistics from the European Central Bank (ECB). It tracks outcomes of collective bargaining, or pay deals between employers and unions, in 9 euro-area countries covering about 94% of employee pay. Bargaining covers about 80% of euro-area staff, average pact duration is 2 years, and the target is agreed basic pay without employer social charges. It covers the euro area only, with no aggregate for states outside the 9 and it excludes actual earnings and the gap to actual pay.

National monthly or quarterly pay series feed a euro-area figure compiled each quarter, about 40 to 45 days after quarter end. Dates come from the ECB release calendar, publication is on the ECB Data Portal at 11 Frankfurt time, with no dedicated press release. Euro-area data update monthly but publish quarterly, revisions follow national inputs, and 4 ECB wage trackers add context. The ECB watches it for labour-cost risks to medium-term price stability, reading acceleration, persistence and the gap to actual pay, with no target level.

Country inputs carry moving yearly weights based on employee pay, so Germany, France, Italy and Spain dominate.

• Germany: Bundesbank index from deals covering 19 million staff, with regular pay plus one-off bonuses booked in the payable month.
• France: quarterly agreed pay floors across 278 industries by skill, a proxy series that likely skips the public sector.
• Italy: monthly contract index for 12.9 million staff in 74 pacts, with monthly pay plus yearly items spread evenly, excluding one-offs.
• Spain: registered deals averaging base-salary rises for 10.7 million staff, with multi-year pacts counted yearly and no bonuses.
• Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland: minima or base wages, with 250 Dutch deals, 295 Austrian deals, 1075 jobs and 95% cover. Belgian indexation, Portuguese backdating and Finnish smoothing apply, with back pay spread over pact time.

Headline growth is volatile around one-off disbursement months, so the ECB reads it with the smoothed tracker and drift split.

1. Collect national series: gather each country's most timely bargained-wage series for basic agreed pay, excluding employer social charges.
2. Quarterize monthly inputs: average monthly readings into a quarterly level, so mixed inputs share one quarter.
3. Country year-on-year rate: divide quarterly level minus same quarter 4 quarters earlier by that earlier level, times 100 in percent. That is g(i,Q) = 100 x [X(i,Q) minus X(i,Q-4)] / X(i,Q-4).
4. Euro-area average: weight national yearly rates by ESA pay shares, reset yearly. Example: 0.30 times 4.0% plus 0.22 times 3.0% plus 0.17 times 3.5% plus 0.11 times 4.5% plus 0.20 times 3.0% totals 3.55%, shown as 3.6%.
5. Publish: show results as year-on-year percent change, quarterly, with no seasonal adjustment, from long series. Data refresh monthly but release quarterly.