Currency
Stock Index
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Dept of Finance Canada 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.75 | — | ||||
| 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | In Line | ||
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | In Line | ||
| CPI MoM | 0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 13.5 | 12.3 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Employment Change | -68.3 | -41.7 | 7 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 475 | -301 | 120 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 64.8 | 65 | 65.3 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -35.4 | -35.9 | 38 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 2.3 | 2 | 3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -32.9 | -5.8 | 27 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3.2 | 3.39 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.13 | 0.06 | — | |||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.13 | 0.06 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 0 | 0.4 | 0 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Aug) | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Gross Domestic Product MoM (Jul) | 0 | 0.3 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Starts | 248 | 242 | 232.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Building Permits | 4.8 | 6.1 | -2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 8.8 | -15.8 | 2.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 200.2 | — | 178 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0.4 | Beat | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.9 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -0.7 | 0.5 | -0.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Retail Sales MoM (Aug) | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0.4 | Beat | ||
| Retail Sales MoM (Jul) | -0.8 | 1 | -0.5 | Miss |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 4.2 | 0.79 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | -6.32 | -3.82 | -5.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 8.8 | -8.3 | -2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 77.91 | 76.03 | 77.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 73.71 | 75.24 | 75.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 53 | 52.9 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 48.3 | 46.8 | 47.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 48.7 | 47.8 | 48.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 81.9 | 80.7 | 81 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Ivey PMI NSA | 61.9 | 62.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Ivey PMI | 58.2 | 64.3 | 65.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 49.2 | 49.1 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -4.77 | 0.99 | -2.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 5-Year Bond Auction | 3.574 | 3.517 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 4.249 | 4.201 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| 2-Year Bond Auction | 3.321 | 3.47 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 10-Year Bond Auction | 3.966 | 3.707 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Year Bond Auction | 3.666 | 3.449 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.588 | 2.113 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians | 23.9 | -30.63 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Foreign Securities Purchases | -17.31 | 20.64 | 23.59 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.6 | 0.3 | -1.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 174.6 | 176.2 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 174.6 | 176.2 | 161 | Beat | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| 46.61 | 47.35 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 0.08 | 0.12 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 47.9 | 57.7 |
| Beat |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0 | Miss |
| Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | In Line |
| Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | In Line |
| New Housing Price Index YoY | -2.3 | — | — |
| Miss |
| Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Labour Productivity QoQ | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Job Vacancies | 353 | 401 | — |
| 0.1 |
| Miss |
| GDP Implicit Price QoQ | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Flash GDP Forecast | -9 | — | — |
| Beat |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Industrial Product Prices MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Industrial Product Prices YoY | 1.7 | 1.4 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Manufacturing Sales YoY | -1 | 2.3 | — |
| Manufacturing Shipments MoM | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1 | Beat |
| Manufacturing Shipments YoY | 2.3 | -0.9 | — |
| Miss |
| Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Raw Materials Prices MoM | 3.1 | -2.1 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Raw Materials Prices YoY | 22.8 | 18.2 | 18.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey | -1 | 1 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC CAD speculative net positions | -55.6 | -32.7 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Business Outlook Survey Indicator | 4.7 | 4 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Stock Investment by Foreigners | -4280 | — | 9970 | Miss |
| Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities | 2.81 | 3.81 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Wholesale Sales YoY | 0.8 | 2.6 | — |
| Foreign Investment in Canadian Securities | -6.31 | 14.32 | 7.28 | Miss |
