Gross Domestic Product MoM

Canada Gross Domestic Product MoM measures monthly change in real gross domestic product by industry. Gross domestic product here means value added, or output minus intermediate consumption, adjusted for price change in chained 2017 dollars. It covers 174 industries in 20 sectors, split into goods-producing and services-producing groups, at basic prices excluding product taxes and subsidies. It supplements quarterly income-based and expenditure-based GDP, which track earnings, spending, exports, and investment rather than industry production.

Statistics Canada publishes each release in The Daily from Monday to Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time except holidays. The regular estimate arrives about 60 days after the reference month, with an advance estimate about 1 month after the month. Tables such as 36-10-0434-01 and real-time table 36-10-0491-01 carry the data, with charts and sector contributions. Monthly estimates anchor to the annual Supply and Use Tables, published almost 3 years after the reference year. Revision windows reach January of the previous year, except September to January of the 4th prior year and October to December to the current year. Markets read the MoM % change in chained dollars, sector breadth out of 20, and the goods versus services split.

Growth usually spreads unevenly, so releases rank the 20 sectors and split goods producers from service providers.

• Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, plus utilities: oil sands, crude, natural gas, other mining, and weather-sensitive power; often the largest mover.
• Construction and manufacturing: homes, engineering, and repair plus durables like transportation equipment and nondurables like chemicals, plastics, and rubber.
• Agriculture, wholesale, and retail trade: weather-hit farm output and sales through wholesalers and store retailers with motor vehicles and parts.
• Transportation, hospitality, and recreation: air travel, urban transit, lodging and food, plus arts and entertainment.
• Finance, real estate, and professional services: investment vehicles, leasing and home resale, and scientific and technical services.
• Public sector: education, health care and social assistance, and public administration, sensitive to strikes.

In December 2023, released 2024-02-29, real GDP was essentially unchanged at -0.0% MoM after two months of growth, even though 14 of 20 sectors grew. Goods producers fell 0.2% on utilities, construction, and manufacturing, while services stalled as education and health declines offset broad gains. The public sector fell 1.0% amid strikes by Quebec public-sector workers. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction rose 1.5% for a third straight month, with oil and gas up 2.4% at record crude output. Finance added 0.8% and retail added 0.7% for a fourth straight month. Fourth-quarter 2023 GDP rose 0.2% and full-year 2023 rose 1.2%, the slowest since 2016 aside from the 2020 contraction. The same release put the January 2024 advance estimate at 0.4%, updated with the 2024-03-28 release.

1. Annual anchor: benchmark levels come from the Supply and Use Tables, the annual benchmark, where value added equals output minus intermediate consumption. Annual constant-price estimates use double deflation, which strips price change from output and inputs separately.
2. Monthly projection: Statistics Canada projects value added from output, employment, or input indicators for months beyond the benchmark tables. The output-to-value-added link stays steady over short periods without major technical change. Manufacturing uses Monthly Survey of Manufacturing data, while many services use payroll and employment data.
3. Aggregation: real GDP is computed per industry, then summed to total growth.
4. Chaining to dollars: each estimate equals a chained volume index times 2017 value added, with January 2023 onward chaining a Laspeyres index at 2022 prices. For example, an index of 1.10 on 100 billion dollars of 2017 value added gives 110 billion chained 2017 dollars. An index of 1.103 gives 110.3 billion, chained the same way.
5. Seasonal adjustment: X-12-ARIMA removes seasonal and trading-day effects, so all published monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
6. Headline MoM % change: it equals 100 times the monthly difference divided by the prior month on seasonally adjusted chained 2017 dollar levels. For example, a rise from 110 billion to 110.3 billion dollars gives 100 times 0.3 divided by 110, or 0.3%.