Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation Rate MoM is the one-month % change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Canada, the headline gauge of pure price change. Statistics Canada (StatCan), the national statistical office, publishes it for a fixed basket. Its index base is 2002 = 100, and the series runs back to 1914 and has been monthly since 1927.

It covers private households in urban and rural Canada, published for Canada, the ten provinces and Whitehorse, Yellowknife and Iqaluit. It rests on an annual sample of over 1,000,000 quotes from 500-plus classes in 19 strata. It is not a cost of living index, which would hold living standards fixed. It excludes stocks and bonds, house prices directly, income taxes, life insurance and transactions outside Canada.

Prices are collected in the reference month, usually in the first two weeks, with food running into the third week. StatCan publishes the index monthly in The Daily at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, about three weeks after the observation period. Release dates are set a year ahead and firmly kept.

Each release brings headline and adjusted tables, weights, the Bank of Canada core gauges CPI-median, CPI-trim and CPI-common, and a visual tool. Moves are explained by sub-aggregate contributions. The official unadjusted index is never revised, while the adjusted series revises the prior month and 36 months each January. Indexation users should use the unadjusted index, which reflects actual prices.

There is no MoM target. The Bank of Canada aims at 2% at the midpoint of a 1% to 3% range in place since 1991, defined on the 12-month rate.

Eight major groups form the basket.

• Shelter, 29.12%. Rents, mortgage interest cost and owned home costs including replacement cost.
• Transportation, 17.29%. Passenger vehicle purchase and operation, gasoline at 3.71%, insurance and fares.
• Food, 16.72%. Food from stores at 10.75% plus food from restaurants at 5.97%.
• Household operations, furnishings and equipment, 13.28%. Communications and home services including cellular at 1.30% and internet access at 1.33%.
• Recreation, education and reading, 10.16%. Recreation goods and vehicles plus travel and education services.
• Health and personal care, 5.06%. Personal care supplies and equipment plus health services and products.
• Clothing and footwear, 4.40%, with alcohol, tobacco and cannabis, 3.98%. Apparel and footwear plus alcohol from stores, cigarettes and cannabis.

The June 2022 release of July 20, 2022 shows one part driving the headline amid broad gains. Annual inflation hit 8.1% after 7.7% in May, the largest rise since January 1983. The monthly pace cooled to 0.7% unadjusted and 0.6% adjusted, after 1.4%.

Gasoline drove the jump at 54.6% over 12 months and 6.2% on the month, yet 7 of 8 major groups rose 3% or more. Fuel oil fell 10.2% on the month while all items rose, proving one part can move against the headline.

1. Elementary cells, the lowest product-by-region level. Track identical offers over time and average price relatives with Jevons, a geometric mean with equal weights. For example, relatives of 1.02, 1.00 and 1.04 give about 1.0199, or 2.0%. A few classes use Dutot, such as tuition.
2. Upper aggregation with Lowe, a fixed basket formula. Weight each cell by its hybrid share, then sum. Baskets are chain-linked so change reflects prices only, never weights. For example, a food cell at 140.0 with share 0.1672 and a shelter cell at 160.0 with share 0.2912 give an all-items index of 124.2.
3. MoM rate, the one-month move. Divide the index by its prior value, subtract 1 and multiply by 100, using rounded published indices. February 2018 gives 0.6% from 132.5 over 131.7, and an illustrative pair gives 0.7% from 152.3 over 151.2. Results round to one decimal.
4. Seasonal adjustment, removal of normal seasonal moves. Build a parallel X-12-ARIMA series for 15 national series only. Each series is adjusted directly; series with no pattern stay equal to the official index.