The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.00 | +0.20 |
| May 19, 2026 | 2.80 | 3.10 | -0.30 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.40 | -0.10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.20 | +0.20 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.30 | +0.10 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.60 | +0.10 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 2.30 | 2.60 | -0.30 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.20 | +0.40 |
| Feb 18, 2025 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1.60 | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2.00 | 2.10 | -0.10 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Jul 16, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.90 | -0.20 |
| Jun 25, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.60 | +0.30 |
| May 21, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2.80 | 3.10 | -0.30 |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2.90 | 3.30 | -0.40 |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3.10 | 2.90 | +0.20 |
| Nov 21, 2023 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3.80 | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| Sep 19, 2023 | 4.00 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Aug 15, 2023 | 3.30 | 3.00 | +0.30 |
| Jul 18, 2023 | 2.80 | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| Jun 27, 2023 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| May 16, 2023 | 4.40 | 4.10 | +0.30 |
| Apr 18, 2023 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 5.90 | 6.10 | -0.20 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 6.30 | 6.40 | -0.10 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 6.80 | 6.70 | +0.10 |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 0.00 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 6.90 | 6.80 | +0.10 |
| Sep 20, 2022 | 7.00 | 7.30 | -0.30 |
| Aug 16, 2022 | 7.60 | 7.60 | 0.00 |
| Jul 20, 2022 | 8.10 | 8.40 | -0.30 |
