GDP Growth Rate QoQ

GDP Growth Rate QoQ is the quarterly % change in Canada gross domestic product (GDP), the unduplicated value of goods and services for final use. Statistics Canada compiles it in the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Income and by Expenditure Accounts. It uses the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts and the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) production boundary.

It covers all producers in Canada plus trade and income flows with non-residents, with series since 1961 and no direct sample. The expenditure figure is a volume measure without price changes, unlike monthly GDP by industry, and it is not a welfare gauge.

StatCan releases the accounts about 60 days after the reference quarter ends, in The Daily at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Each release shows headline boxes for real GDP change, saving rate, disposable income change, and the terms of trade index. Tables show income-based GDP and real expenditure-based GDP in chained 2017 dollars, meaning price-adjusted volumes with seasonal patterns removed and quarters scaled to annual rates.

Real-time tables 36-10-0430-01 and 36-10-0431-01 update about 10 days later, and the same Daily often carries monthly GDP by industry. Revisions follow a fixed cycle: the 1st quarter revises all quarters of the prior year, and the 2nd revises only the 1st quarter. The 3rd brings the annual revision over 3 years with the Supply-Use Table, and the 4th revises the same year. Comprehensive revisions can reach back to 1961 on concept changes.

6 demand blocks plus a balancing item shape the headline, and chain weights move each quarter.

• Final consumption expenditure: spending by households on goods and services, the largest demand block, plus non-profit institutions and government.
• Residential structures: new construction, renovations, and ownership transfer costs for housing investment.
• Non-residential investment: buildings, engineering structures, machinery and equipment, plus software, research and development for knowledge investment.
• Investment in inventories: farm and non-farm stock changes across retail, wholesale, and manufacturing, a volatile swing contributor.
• Exports less imports of goods and services: foreign demand such as crude oil, vehicles, and travel services, less foreign supply which subtracts from GDP.
• Statistical discrepancy and final domestic demand: a small item balancing income and expenditure GDP, while final domestic demand means final consumption plus fixed investment.

In the 4th quarter of 2023, real GDP edged up 0.2% after a 0.1% fall. Final domestic demand edged down 0.2% after a 0.2% rise, so net exports drove the headline. Exports rose 1.4% after a 0.3% drop, led by crude oil and bitumen at 6.2%, while imports fell 0.4% after a 0.3% rise.

Household spending rose 0.2% after 0.1%, while housing fell 0.4% as weak resale cut transfer costs 7.7%. The terms of trade stood at 108.4 (2017 = 100) and the saving rate at 6.2%.

1. Nominal aggregates: StatCan builds 435 current-dollar series plus 435 matching price series at the national level.
2. Fisher quantity index: the quarterly growth link is the geometric mean, or square-rooted product, of Laspeyres and Paasche indexes. Laspeyres values current quantities at past prices, while Paasche values past quantities at current prices.
3. Chaining: each Fisher link multiplies onto the prior chain, adopted in May 2001 as the official real GDP measure, matching United States practice since 1996.
4. Seasonal adjustment: StatCan removes seasonal patterns with X-12-ARIMA, the adjustment method, at the lowest aggregation level, then sums to totals published in chained 2017 dollars.
5. Growth formula: quarter-to-quarter growth equals (Vt divided by Vt-1 minus 1) multiplied by 100, using volume for expenditure data and nominal values for income data.
6. Reference period: 2017 only re-calibrates levels with no effect on growth, and chain Fisher series are non-additive with gaps growing from the base.
7. Worked example: illustrative real GDP of 2400000 million chained 2017 dollars rises to 2404800 million. Growth is (2404800 divided by 2400000 minus 1) multiplied by 100, or 0.2%, where Vt is this quarter value and Vt-1 is the prior one.