Gross Domestic Product YoY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sums resident value added inside Canada. Statistics Canada runs monthly GDP industry and quarterly income and spending programs. YoY is real percent change on one year earlier: monthly on 12 months and quarterly on 4 quarters. Levels are chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted.

Monthly industry covers 174 industries on NAICS, plus 75 aggregates across 20 goods and services sectors. Value added is output minus intermediate goods and services. There is no single survey or sample. Data come from other surveys and admin sources.

Monthly samples are smaller with no error measure. Monthly GDP is at basic prices and quarterly spending GDP is at market prices after taxes and subsidies. Growth rates can diverge slightly. It is not nominal growth and not an annualized rate. Direction alone matters: up is growth and down is contraction.

Releases appear in The Daily each working day at 8:30 am Eastern. The flash estimate comes one month after the reference month and the regular estimate 60 days after its end. Quarterly spending estimates come about 60 days after the reference quarter.

Each release shows levels, rates, sector analysis, charts, tables, revision notes, adjustment links and video. The industry release carries an advance estimate for the next month and the next release date. January to August revise to prior January and September to fourth prior January. October to December revise to January, and quarters revise with later same-year data with full revisions at times.

Monthly GDP sums value added across 20 goods and services sectors. Large moves need many industries in the same direction.

• Manufacturing: durable and non-durable goods such as machinery, wood products, petroleum and coal products.
• Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction: oil, gas and mined materials.
• Construction and utilities: building work, electricity, gas and water.
• Wholesale and retail trade: distribution through stores.
• Transportation and warehousing, and accommodation and food services: freight, storage, hotels and restaurants.
• Finance, real estate, professional and public services: banks, property, professional work, health, education and public administration.

On August 28, 2020 real GDP fell 11.5% in Q2 after 2.1% in Q1, steepest since 1961 and 38.7% annualized. Household spending 13.1% and business investment 16.2% fell with exports 18.4% and imports 22.6%. Firms drew 37.7 billion from inventories as final demand fell 11.1% after 1.9%. Revised Q1 data pointed to Q3 on December 1, 2020, and the 11.5% versus 38.7% gap with YoY shows joint breadth.

1. Value added: Value is output minus intermediate goods and services and the sum is basic. Gross keeps wear.
2. Two totals and prices: Spending sums consumption, government, fixed investment, inventories, net exports and half the gap. Income sums wages, profits, interest, business incomes, inventory adjustment, taxes less subsidies, capital wear and half the gap. The totals never match, then prices leave through spending indexes.
3. Fisher chain: The formula turned official on May 31, 2001 after Laspeyres. It is the square root of Laspeyres times Paasche. It links each quarter to the prior one.
4. Monthly path: Monthly anchors to annual Fisher from supply and use tables. Output, jobs and input gauges project value with a steady short link. Since January 2023 a 2022-price Laspeyres links on as 2017 volumes.
5. Seasonal adjustment: Quarterly uses X-11 ARIMA summed from the base and monthly X-12-ARIMA with trading day effects. Every headline figure is adjusted.
6. Rates and example: Quarterly is the level on the prior minus 1 times 100 and the annualized raises to the fourth power. True YoY is quarterly on the fourth prior and monthly on the twelfth prior. For example, consumption 60, government 20, fixed investment 22, inventories 1 and net minus 2 give 101.0. Laspeyres 1.0050 and Paasche 1.0030 give Fisher about 1.0040 or 0.40%, about 1.61% annualized and about 3.59% YoY against 97.5.