Average Hourly Wages Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the annual change in the average amount businesses pay for labor per hour. This indicator is a crucial component of the monthly employment report as it serves as a primary driver of consumer spending and a key signal for cost-push inflation. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, monitor wage growth closely to determine if the labor market is overheating. Persistent wage growth often leads to higher interest rate expectations to combat potential inflation.
Calculated by dividing total gross payrolls by the total number of hours worked by employees in the private nonfarm sector, then comparing the current month's average to the same month in the previous year.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | — | 3.00 | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.90 | -0.90 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.60 | -0.60 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.10 | +0.60 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 3.20 | 4.70 | -1.50 |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.90 | -0.10 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 5.10 | 3.70 | +1.40 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 4.20 | 3.20 | +1.00 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.50 | -0.20 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3.70 | 4.00 | -0.30 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.30 | +0.70 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.60 | -0.30 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.20 | +0.40 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.10 | +0.40 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.50 | -0.30 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| May 9, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.00 | +0.50 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3.50 | 4.00 | -0.50 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.50 | +0.50 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.90 | -0.20 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3.90 | 4.80 | -0.90 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.90 | 4.40 | +0.50 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.80 | -0.30 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Aug 9, 2024 | 5.20 | 6.00 | -0.80 |
| Jul 5, 2024 | 5.60 | 5.30 | +0.30 |
| Jun 7, 2024 | 5.20 | — | — |
| May 10, 2024 | 4.80 | 4.90 | -0.10 |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 5.00 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 4.90 | 5.30 | -0.40 |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 5.70 | 5.10 | +0.60 |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.30 | -0.30 |
| Oct 6, 2023 | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| Sep 8, 2023 | 5.20 | 4.80 | +0.40 |
| Aug 4, 2023 | 5.00 | 4.10 | +0.90 |
| Jul 7, 2023 | 3.90 | 4.30 | -0.40 |
| Jun 9, 2023 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 0.00 |
| May 5, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.50 | -0.30 |
| Mar 10, 2023 | 5.40 | 4.40 | +1.00 |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 4.50 | 4.40 | +0.10 |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.30 | -0.10 |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 5.40 | 4.80 | +0.60 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 5.50 | 5.10 | +0.40 |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 5.20 | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| Sep 9, 2022 | 5.60 | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2022 | 5.40 | — | — |
The latest reading is 2.6 standard deviations below the mean.
