Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | — | 2.90 | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 5.20 | 3.10 | +2.10 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 6.10 | 3.50 | +2.60 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 3.60 | 2.90 | +0.70 |
| May 22, 2026 | 3.40 | 1.50 | +1.90 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 3.80 | 1.30 | +2.50 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1.40 | 1.00 | +0.40 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 0.00 | — | — |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3.10 | 1.80 | +1.30 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.20 | +0.20 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 4.90 | 3.80 | +1.10 |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.50 | +0.50 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 6.60 | 5.30 | +1.30 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.00 | +0.90 |
| Jun 20, 2025 | 5.00 | 3.40 | +1.60 |
| May 23, 2025 | 5.60 | 3.80 | +1.80 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 4.70 | 3.90 | +0.80 |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.00 | +0.20 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 3.90 | 0.50 | +3.40 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 0.80 | 0.90 | -0.10 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1.40 | 1.00 | +0.40 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 0.90 | 0.70 | +0.20 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 0.20 | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| Jul 19, 2024 | 1.00 | 1.90 | -0.90 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | 1.80 | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| May 24, 2024 | 1.90 | 0.90 | +1.00 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 1.20 | 1.10 | +0.10 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 0.90 | 2.50 | -1.60 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.50 | +0.40 |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1.80 | 0.80 | +1.00 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2.20 | 1.20 | +1.00 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2.70 | 2.00 | +0.70 |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 1.60 | 0.20 | +1.40 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 2.00 | 0.50 | +1.50 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | -0.60 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| Jul 21, 2023 | 0.50 | -0.30 | +0.80 |
| Jun 21, 2023 | 2.90 | 2.00 | +0.90 |
| May 19, 2023 | 2.40 | 3.90 | -1.50 |
| Apr 21, 2023 | 4.30 | 4.60 | -0.30 |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 5.00 | 4.30 | +0.70 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 7.30 | 3.50 | +3.80 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 5.20 | 5.30 | -0.10 |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 6.40 | 3.10 | +3.30 |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 6.90 | 5.10 | +1.80 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 7.00 | 6.50 | +0.50 |
| Sep 23, 2022 | 8.00 | 3.50 | +4.50 |
| Aug 19, 2022 | 11.00 | 9.00 | +2.00 |
| Jul 22, 2022 | 14.10 | 10.00 | +4.10 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | 5.90 | 6.10 | +0.20 ↑ |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.60 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1.50 | 1.40 | -0.10 ↓ |
