The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several individual economic indicators that typically lead changes in the overall economy, such as building permits, stock prices, and consumer expectations. A rising index suggests economic expansion in the coming months, while a declining trend can signal a potential recession.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, new orders, and interest rate spreads, adjusted for volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | 0.14 | — | — |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 0.15 | — | — |
| May 7, 2026 | 0.12 | — | — |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 0.09 | — | — |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 0.28 | — | — |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 0.26 | — | — |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 0.20 | — | — |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 0.21 | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 0.23 | — | — |
| Jul 4, 2025 | 0.15 | — | — |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 0.10 | — | — |
| May 7, 2025 | 0.02 | — | — |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 0.07 | — | — |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 0.16 | — | — |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 0.28 | — | — |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 0.24 | — | — |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 0.25 | — | — |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 0.22 | — | — |
| Jul 4, 2024 | 0.15 | — | — |
| Jun 6, 2024 | 0.15 | — | — |
| May 14, 2024 | 0.19 | — | — |
| May 5, 2024 | 0.26 | — | — |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 0.32 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | 0.11 | 0.15 | +0.04 ↑ |
| May 7, 2026 | 0.06 | 0.12 | +0.06 ↑ |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 0.07 | 0.09 | +0.02 ↑ |
