Currency
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from NZ Treasury 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.5 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.75 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.071 | 3.06 | 3.009 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 1-Year Bill Auction | 3.6 | 3.6176 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 3.21 | 3.2022 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| RBNZ MPC Vote | 0 | 3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Inflation Expectations | 2.34 | 2.53 | 2.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.2 | -1.1 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 0.6 | -0.4 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 0.9 | 2.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Employment Change QoQ | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 70.7 | 70.4 | 70.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.1 | 2 | 2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | Beat | |||
| 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits | 1.9 | -4.5 | 2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Building Permits MoM | 5.6 | -4.5 | 0.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 2.1 | -2.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.9 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 0.9 | 0.2 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Consumer Confidence | 94.7 | 96.5 | 95 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 43 | 8 | 15 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 97.6 | 98 | 98 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 51.9 | 53.7 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -1.349 | -2.118 | -1.775 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | -578 | 203 | 70 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.67 | -1.09 | -2.57 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 6.66 | 7.22 | 7.4 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 8 | 9.33 | 9.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Balance of Trade MoM | -1349 | -2118 | -1775 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Balance of Trade YoY | -5440 | -5410 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 13.8 | -0.7 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production YoY | -0.5 | — | — | |||
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.3 | 3.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 91 | 90.8 | 89.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 56.5 | 53.3 | 54 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 6.4 | 2.8 | -1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 0.8 | 3.6 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 51.8 | 54.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 0.2 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -9.31 | -14.8 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visitor Arrivals YoY | 8 | 8.5 | 4.3 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Visitor Arrivals MoM | 2.8 | 0.7 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| Milk Auctions | 3928 | 3868 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| M3 Money Supply | 454.7 | 458.5 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 51.2 | 50.6 | 50.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.3 | Beat | |||
| -9 | -1.9 |
| Beat |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Consumer Price Index | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Inflation Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| FAO Food Price Index MoM | -1.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | Miss |
| RBNZ Inflation Expectations YoY | 2.2 | 2.3 | — |
| 55.1 |
| Miss |
| Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence | 89.5 | 80.4 | 82.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Retail Sales QoQ | -0.5 | 1 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 94.7 | 96.5 | — |
| Westpac consumer survey | 110.8 | 111.1 | — |
| 1.1 |
| Beat |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Export Prices QoQ | 3.5 | -2.6 | 1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Miss |
| Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC NZD speculative net positions | -36.1 | -28.6 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Money Supply | 441.7 | 447.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Commodity Prices YoY | 26.1 | 23.8 | — |
| ANZ Commodity Price | 7.4 | 1.1 | — |
