Currency
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from NZ Treasury 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.5 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.75 | 2.5 | 2.75 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.892 | 2.85 | 2.809 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month Bill Auction | 3.076 | 3.03 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 1-Year Bill Auction | 3.4 | 3.39 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Inflation Expectations | 2.34 | 2.53 | 2.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.9 | 2.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 0.9 | 2.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -3.9 | -1.1 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Employment Change QoQ | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 70.7 | 70.4 | 70.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.1 | 2 | 2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | Beat | ||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | Beat | |||
| 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits | 1.9 | -4.5 | 2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Building Permits MoM | -4.3 | -3.7 | 2.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 2.1 | -2.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 1.3 | -1.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 94.7 | 96.5 | 95 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 8 | -4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 98 | 99.3 | 98.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 53.7 | 56.1 | 55.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.5 | 1 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1.3 | -1.3 | -0.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -1.95 | -0.24 | -0.175 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | -578 | 203 | 70 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.01 | -5.64 | -1.03 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 7.39 | 7.82 | 7.7 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 9.34 | 8.07 | 8.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Balance of Trade YoY | -5236 | -4049 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Balance of Trade MoM | -1949 | -237 | -175 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |
| -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production YoY | -0.5 | — | — | |||
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.3 | 3.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 90.8 | 91.2 | 90.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 54.3 | 60.1 | 58.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 2.8 | -0.7 | -0.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 3.6 | -0.5 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 51.8 | 54.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 0.2 | — | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -9.31 | -14.8 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milk Auctions | 3910 | 3873 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| M3 Money Supply | 458.5 | 454.7 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 5.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 50.6 | 50.9 | 51.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 52.6 | 53.8 | 54 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| -0.1 | -2.4 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 8.1 | 6.7 | 7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -2 | 3.7 | -1.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Consumer Price Index | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Inflation Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| FAO Food Price Index MoM | -1.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | Miss |
| RBNZ Inflation Expectations YoY | 2.2 | 2.3 | — |
| Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 94.7 | 92.9 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 94.7 | 96.5 | — |
| Westpac consumer survey | 110.8 | 111.1 | — |
| Export Prices QoQ | -2.7 | 5.3 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC NZD speculative net positions | -36.1 | -28.6 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Money Supply | 441.7 | 447.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Commodity Prices YoY | 26.1 | 23.8 | — |
| ANZ Commodity Price | 7.4 | 1.1 | — |
