This indicator measures the rate at which consumers and businesses expect prices to rise in the future. It is a key forward-looking metric that central banks use to gauge the risk of an inflation spiral. High expectations can lead to actual inflation as workers demand higher wages and firms raise prices in anticipation of higher costs.
Derived from surveys asking respondents about their price outlook over the next 1 to 5 years, often expressed as a percentage.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | 2.34 | 2.70 | -0.36 |
| May 13, 2026 | 2.53 | 1.70 | +0.83 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 2.37 | 1.70 | +0.67 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2.28 | 2.50 | -0.22 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 2.28 | 1.80 | +0.48 |
| May 16, 2025 | 2.29 | 2.40 | -0.11 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 2.06 | 1.80 | +0.26 |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| May 13, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.00 | +0.30 |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2.50 | 2.60 | -0.10 |
| Nov 8, 2023 | 2.76 | 2.60 | +0.16 |
| Aug 9, 2023 | 2.83 | — | — |
| May 12, 2023 | 2.79 | — | — |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Aug 8, 2022 | 3.10 | — | — |
| May 12, 2022 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3.27 | — | — |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2.96 | — | — |
