Business NZ PMI

The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) is a monthly factory survey giving an early sign of activity direction, running since August 2002. BusinessNZ (Business New Zealand) publishes it with BNZ (Bank of New Zealand) through 4 regional groups, with no published panel count.

It covers five parts on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 means no change. It measures reported direction only, not output volumes or sales values. It covers manufacturing only and is not Stats NZ official output data, while services belong to the separate Performance of Services Index (PSI).

It reports on the ended reference month. It appears on a Friday near the middle of the next month, often the 2nd Friday and sometimes the 3rd. Market calendars list it near 10:30am New Zealand time, while publisher releases print no time. The December round arrives in the second half of January, with no standing revision policy.

Each release shows a press release with regional and industry results plus seasonally adjusted and unadjusted tables and charts. It adds BNZ research commentary and a comparison with the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI.

Readers compare the level with 50, where above means expansion and below means contraction. They compare it with the long term average in that release. For example, 53.0 appeared in the June 2023 and April 2020 releases and 52.6 in the June 2024 release. They also read momentum from monthly change and pace, linking sustained New Orders below 50 to coming output decline.

5 parts drive the headline with no published weights, while region, industry and comment mix add context.

• Production: what manufacturers say about their output direction, often the largest mover.
• Employment: what manufacturers say about staffing direction, usually steadier than activity.
• New Orders: what manufacturers say about incoming orders, seen as forward looking for future output.
• Finished Stocks: what manufacturers say about finished goods stock direction.
• Deliveries: what manufacturers say about supplier delivery direction.

In the May 15, 2020 release for April 2020, the adjusted index fell to 26.1, down 11.9 points from March. It was the lowest ever reading after 36.1 in November 2008. New Orders at 17.8 and Production at 19.8 collapsed while Employment at 41.2 held higher, helped in part by wage subsidies. Finished Stocks at 38.0 and Deliveries at 25.8 were recorded in April 2020.

BNZ commentary warns against mapping broad moves precisely to sales, since the gauge records breadth, not size. The March 2020 round was skipped, with March as the mean of February 2020 at 53.7 and April 2020 at 26.1, or 38.0, seasonally adjusted.

1. Survey: ask manufacturers through 4 regional groups about direction of change for production, employment, new orders, finished stocks and supplier deliveries.
2. Diffusion index: express each part on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 means no change.
3. Combine: combine the 5 parts into 1 headline composite with no published weights. For illustration only, November 2014 values were 56.6 for Production, 54.9 for Employment and 55.1 for New Orders. Finished Stocks at 51.4 and Deliveries at 56.6 were also above 50, with headline 55.2.
4. Adjust: adjust the headline and parts for normal seasonal swings and show unadjusted series alongside.