The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | 4.10 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 3.10 | 2.90 | +0.20 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 20, 2025 | 2.70 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.30 | +0.20 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 16, 2024 | 3.30 | 3.50 | -0.20 |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0.00 |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 5.60 | 5.90 | -0.30 |
| Jul 18, 2023 | 6.00 | 5.90 | +0.10 |
| Apr 19, 2023 | 6.70 | 7.10 | -0.40 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 7.20 | 7.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 7.20 | 6.60 | +0.60 |
| Jul 17, 2022 | 7.30 | 7.10 | +0.20 |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 6.90 | 7.10 | -0.20 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 5.90 | 5.70 | +0.20 |
| Oct 17, 2021 | 4.90 | 4.10 | +0.80 |
