Balance of Trade

Balance of Trade is the goods trade balance reported inside Overseas Merchandise Trade (OMT), a monthly census compiled by Stats NZ from customs entries. It covers merchandise that adds to or subtracts from material resources under the general system for recording trade, classified under the Harmonised System. It excludes services, small consignments under $1,000, temporary moves, fish, baggage and gold coin, while re-exports, or resold earlier imports, carry under 50% local content. A surplus means exports exceed imports, a deficit means imports exceed them, and zero is the only threshold, not a target.

Stats NZ publishes Overseas Merchandise Trade monthly at 10:45am New Zealand time, generally 15 to 18 working days after the reference month. Exports use export date and imports use clearance date, entries due from 5 days before arrival to 20 working days after, except crude oil. Monthly actuals compare with the same month last year, quarterly adjusted figures compare with the prior quarter, and annual actuals compare with the prior year. Releases add commodity detail, top-5 partners, charts, tables and CSV files, and data stays provisional for 3 months and final after 4 months.

As a census, it has no fixed weights, so moves come from commodity groups and top partners.

• Milk powder, butter and cheese: largest export group, capturing dairy export values, quantities and prices.
• Meat and edible offal: capturing meat and edible organ export values and volumes.
• Logs, wood and wood articles: capturing forestry export flows.
• Fruit and fish: capturing kiwifruit, apple, other fruit and seafood exports.
• Petroleum and products: capturing crude oil and fuel import costs plus volatile crude exports.
• Vehicles, machinery and aircraft: capturing lumpy one-off imports such as turbo-jets, equipment and aircraft parts.

In the 22 June 2023 release for May 2023, the monthly balance was a $46 million surplus on $7.0 billion exports and $6.9 billion imports. In that release, the annual balance was a $17.1 billion deficit, while May 2022 had a $148 million surplus and a $9.4 billion annual deficit. It shows the core pattern: a monthly surplus can sit inside a widening annual deficit because single months are volatile.

That month aircraft imports alone added $279 million, up 748%, while crude oil exports fell $75 million, down 52%. In the 24 July 2023 release for June 2023, the monthly balance was an $8.8 million surplus. That release also showed a $2.7 billion seasonally adjusted June-quarter deficit and a $16.0 billion annual deficit.

1. Trade balance: Trade balance equals exports valued free on board (fob) minus imports valued with insurance and freight (cif) in New Zealand dollars. For example, $6,995 million exports minus $6,949 million imports gives a $46 million surplus.
2. Currency conversion: Export values in foreign currency use weekly exchange rates at compilation, so a rising New Zealand dollar lowers export values. Import values arrive in New Zealand dollars after customs converts them each fortnight, so a rising dollar can cut prices but lift quantities.
3. Seasonal adjustment and trend: Seasonally adjusted series use X-13ARIMA-SEATS each month and for calendar quarters, adjusting for unusual values and seasonal effects. The trend uses a centred 9, 13 or 23 month average, after removing imports of $100 million or more, as exports trend minus imports trend.
4. Estimation and revision: Crude oil values use actual quantities with estimated prices until late documents arrive, then are updated. A large crude shipment can cause a big revision, and adjusted figures recalculate each period.