Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales YoY is the yearly leg of the Retail Trade Survey (RTS), a quarterly survey by Stats NZ, the national statistics agency. It covers shops plus accommodation and food services across New Zealand, about 52,000 outlets.

Year on year (YoY) means actual (unadjusted) sales versus the same quarter one year ago. It is not total household spending, wholesale trade, or a price index. The deflators draw on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation gauge, and sales exclude goods and services tax (GST). The analytical series starts in 1995 and regional sales in the December 2003 quarter, with each industry sized by actual sales.

It covers the calendar months of quarters ending in March, June, September and December, with stocks measured on the last day of the quarter. Releases arrive about 8 weeks after quarter end at 10:45am New Zealand time, with dates shifting around holidays.

Each release gives Key facts plus industry, regional and stock tables in an Excel workbook of 12 tables, with downloads and methods links. All seasonally adjusted and trend figures are revised each quarter, percent changes use unrounded numbers, and the survey feeds gross domestic product (GDP).

Moves reflect spending shifts across 15 industries: 13 in core, with motor vehicles and fuel reported alongside but outside it. Stronger sales usually support the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

• Supermarkets, specialised food and liquor: daily food and drink sales, usually the largest group, holding up the total when others weaken.
• Furniture, textiles, hardware and garden: home furnishings, building materials and garden supplies.
• Electronics, clothing and recreation: appliances, apparel, sport, toys and books, with electronics often the most volatile mover.
• Department stores, chemists and online: general stores, health and personal goods, and mail-order and online retail.
• Accommodation, cafes and restaurants: hotels, motels, cafes, restaurants and bars.
• Cars and petrol: car yards, parts and petrol stations, reported with the total but outside core.

In the June 2024 quarter (released 23 August 2024) volumes fell 1.2% to $24 billion and values fell 1.3% to $30 billion, down $379 million. Actual yearly values fell 1.6% to $29 billion, down $471 million, and end-quarter stocks fell 2.1% to $9.2 billion, down $197 million. 11 of 15 industries and 14 of 16 regions fell.

Supermarket volumes rose 2.1% and pharmaceutical volumes rose 3.2%, while electronics fell 6.0%, motor vehicles 2.7% and food services 1.9%. A weak total can hide grocery and health growth: in the December 2022 quarter (released 27 February 2023) values rose 1.7% while volumes fell 0.6%.

1. Collect: Survey large and medium retailers, plus GST admin (tax records) for small shops, with GST data forecast two months ahead. Classify each outlet by main activity and sum actual dollar sales.

1. Deflator: Build a price basket per industry from CPI parts, weighted by sales mix and updated yearly from sales for the year to June.

1. Deflate: Divide dollar sales by the deflator to get volumes in September 2010 quarter prices, where the base equals 1000. For example, $29,000m with index 1150 gives $25,217m.

1. Adjust: Remove regular seasonal patterns with X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (the official seasonal tool) and derive trend (underlying direction) as a 5-term or 7-term moving average.

1. Compare: Calculate percent changes on unrounded (exact) numbers; quarterly change uses adjusted data and yearly change uses actual data versus one year ago. For example, $29,000m versus $29,470m one year earlier gives -1.6%, and $29,921m versus $30,300m gives -1.3% on the quarter.