Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 3.30 | — | — |
| May 21, 2026 | 4.50 | 2.80 | +1.70 |
| May 18, 2026 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Feb 22, 2026 | 4.40 | 3.60 | +0.80 |
| Feb 15, 2026 | 0.40 | — | — |
| Jan 21, 2026 | -0.50 | — | — |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 4.50 | 1.80 | +2.70 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 0.80 | — | — |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 0.90 | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2025 | 2.30 | 1.00 | +1.30 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Jul 13, 2025 | -0.40 | — | — |
| Jun 11, 2025 | 0.90 | -0.30 | +1.20 |
| May 22, 2025 | 0.70 | -0.30 | +1.00 |
| May 13, 2025 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Apr 13, 2025 | -1.60 | — | — |
| Mar 11, 2025 | -4.20 | — | — |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 0.20 | -1.80 | +2.00 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | -0.50 | — | — |
| Jan 20, 2025 | -1.00 | — | — |
| Nov 24, 2024 | -2.50 | 2.00 | -4.50 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | -5.60 | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2024 | -2.90 | — | — |
| Aug 22, 2024 | -3.60 | 1.70 | -5.30 |
| Aug 14, 2024 | -4.90 | — | — |
| Jun 12, 2024 | -1.60 | — | — |
| May 22, 2024 | -2.40 | 1.50 | -3.90 |
| May 13, 2024 | -3.80 | — | — |
| Apr 11, 2024 | -3.00 | — | — |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Feb 22, 2024 | -4.10 | -3.60 | -0.50 |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Nov 23, 2023 | -3.40 | -4.00 | +0.60 |
| Aug 22, 2023 | -3.50 | 3.10 | -6.60 |
| May 23, 2023 | -4.10 | 3.60 | -7.70 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | -4.00 | — | — |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2022 | -3.70 | — | — |
| May 23, 2022 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Nov 22, 2021 | -5.20 | — | — |
