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Events

Live coverage of the big market-moving stories that run for weeks, such as the third Gulf war, the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Red Sea. Each event has one page where every related story gathers within minutes of publication, with a "what changed" line for each update, a situation summary refreshed as things develop, the key facts, and how oil, gold and the related stocks have moved since the event began and today. Big events contain smaller ones, each with its own page, so you can follow the whole picture or go into the detail. Below the live coverage are the events that have gathered three or more updates, ordered by their latest development.

AllBreakingDevelopingOngoingFadingResolved
AllCentral BanksForexCommoditiesStocksCryptoMacroGeopolitics
Central Banks
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed Hikes Rates by 25bps as Persistent Inflation Defies Target

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a midpoint of 3.875%, marking its first hike since 2023 in response to persistent inflation. This move, along with forecasts for another potential hike, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.04%, its highest level since 2007. Markets experienced volatility as the S&P 500 ended lower while oil prices and bond yields surged. Additionally, record diesel prices are pressuring the trucking and automotive industries, further contributing to inflationary concerns.

3 updates·Last update about 1 month ago
Central Banks
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed Rate Hike Faces Criticism Amid Trump Pressure for Cuts

The Federal Reserve, led by Kevin Warsh, implemented its first interest rate hike in three years, signaling a shift toward further monetary tightening. Despite President Trump’s demands for rates to be cut to 1% or lower, analyst Dan Ives noted the Fed had no choice but to raise them, though he described the move as a 'gut punch' to the market. Following the decision, gold and silver prices rose amid a modest pullback in Treasury yields, while mortgage rates approached 7%. Economic pressures mounted as record diesel prices and housing affordability concerns weighed on market sentiment.

3 updates·Last update about 1 month ago
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed Rate Hike Bets Surge as Oil Spikes Amid Middle East Tensions

Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this Wednesday. This surge in expectations follows rising oil prices caused by Middle East tensions, which also bolstered the US dollar. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 5% for the first time in nearly three years as investors await the upcoming FOMC announcement.

11 updates·Last update about 1 month ago
INTCSKHY+5
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 70% as Oil Surpasses $100 and Wholesale Prices Rise

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week rose to 70% following a surge in oil prices above $100 and rising wholesale prices. These factors have accelerated inflation fears, leading markets to price in a potential second rate increase before the end of the year. Looking further ahead, the Fed is expected to begin a new tightening cycle in September 2026, involving three to four hikes through August 2027. Despite these projections, stock market concerns remain limited as the 10Y2Y yield curve has not yet inverted.

6 updates·Last update about 1 month ago
GSBTC+1
Central Banks
USDJPY
Resolved
Central Banks

Warsh’s Jackson Hole Remarks Boost US Rate Hike Bets

During the Jackson Hole symposium on August 31, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled the possibility of future interest rate hikes. These hawkish remarks revived market bets for a rate increase in September. Additionally, U.S. economic data revealed that inflation and GDP met expectations, while durable goods orders exceeded forecasts.

3 updates·Last update about 2 months ago
USDJPY
Central Banks
BTC
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole Amid Concerns Over Treasury Policy Shift

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday. The appearance coincides with scrutiny over Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to buy back long-dated debt. This Treasury initiative has raised questions regarding potential interference in the Federal Reserve's traditional policy domain.

3 updates·Last update about 2 months ago
BTC
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed July 2026 Rate Cut Hopes Vanish as Markets Pivot Toward Potential Hike

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July 2026 have vanished, with sentiment shifting toward a potential 25-basis-point hike, now at a 46.5% probability. This pivot follows a private sector surplus of over $112B in June, which bolstered risk asset markets. While the S&P 500 is expected to maintain momentum into mid-August, financial models are signaling a deceleration in overall gains.

6 updates·Last update 3 months ago
BTC
Central Banks
Resolved
Central Banks

ECB Set to Hold Rates in July While Keeping September Hike on the Table

The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25% during its July 23 meeting, while maintaining the option for a 25bp hike in September. Recent data shows tighter borrowing conditions in the Euro area, with 42% of firms reporting higher loan rates in Q2. While analysts generally expect rates to remain steady this Thursday, some experts suggest that a surprise rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out.

4 updates·Last update 3 months ago
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed to Release Annual Bank Stress Test Results for Major US Lenders

On June 23, the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the results of its annual bank health checks at 4:00 p.m. ET. On June 24, gold, silver, and Bitcoin fell to their lowest levels of the year due to a strong dollar and fears of interest-rate hikes. On June 27, all 32 largest U.S. banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test conducted on June 24, 2026, which included a hypothetical scenario with unemployment rising to 10%, commercial real estate prices falling 39%, home prices dropping 30%, and total losses of approximately $708 billion.

3 updates·Last update 4 months ago
JPMBAC+7
Resolved
Central Banks

Markets Await Kevin Warsh’s Fed Debut Amid Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Kevin Warsh is preparing to hold his first press conference as Federal Reserve chair this week. This follows his leadership of the first meeting of top Federal Reserve officials scheduled for June 17. Markets are closely watching this debut appearance amid ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.

4 updates·Last update 4 months ago
Resolved
Central Banks

US Inflation Data in Focus Ahead of Warsh's Debut Fed Meeting

Markets are focusing on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data as a critical metric ahead of Kevin M. Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair. The new chairman is implementing a strategy that reduces open communication, marking a reversal of long-standing transparency policies. Meanwhile, the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) is trading at $20.51 with net assets totaling $7.1 billion.

3 updates·Last update 4 months ago
BKLN
Resolved
Central Banks

Markets Await ECB Interest Rate Decision as Policy Pivot Looms

On June 11, the European Central Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, marking its first hike since 2023. The ECB cited the Iran War as the primary reason for the increase, becoming the first major central bank to raise rates in response to new inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Chinese ADRs including BABA, PDD, and JD faced increased pressure and regulatory scrutiny.

5 updates·Last update 4 months ago
BABAPDD+1
Central Banks
JPYBTCETH
Resolved
Central Banks

BoJ Governor Ueda Hospitalized; to Miss Crucial June Policy Meeting

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was hospitalized for a liver cyst, missing the June 15-16 policy meeting where deputies presided over proceedings. The central bank was widely expected to hike interest rates to a 31-year high to counter yen weakness and inflation. Amidst this potential tightening affecting crypto markets, reports emerged of a peace deal between the US and Iran, potentially shifting geopolitical market dynamics.

3 updates·Last update 4 months ago
JPYBTC+1
Resolved
Central Banks

Fed's Michael Barr Warns Against Bank Deregulation Amid Profit Boom

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr issued a warning against the deregulation of U.S. banks during periods of high profitability and financial boom. He emphasized the importance of maintaining robust regulatory standards to ensure long-term stability. Meanwhile, South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has launched a probe into the philanthropic activities of major institutions, including Woori Financial Group and KB Financial Group.

3 updates·Last update 4 months ago
Central Banks
Resolved
Central Banks

ECB's Cipollone: Digital Euro Evolution Essential for Consumer Payment Freedom

On June 5, Frank Elderson, a member of the ECB Executive Board, emphasized the need for banks to strengthen operational resilience against AI-related risks. On the same day, Piero Cipollone stressed that the evolution of European money aims to ensure citizens' freedom to pay.

3 updates·Last update 5 months ago
Resolved
Central Banks

Kevin Warsh Takes Helm at Federal Reserve Amid Historic Market Volatility Risks

Kevin Warsh officially began his tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22 amid historic market volatility. Warsh emphasized the importance of institutional independence and the need to achieve price stability while maintaining economic growth. At the same time, consumer confidence hit record lows, raising concerns about housing security among the younger population. Additionally, inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, putting further pressure on monetary policy.

5 updates·Last update 5 months ago
Resolved
Central Banks

Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh to Federal Reserve Board of Governors

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 12. He was also confirmed as Fed Chair in a party-line vote on May 13, signaling significant challenges ahead due to a Fed committee skeptical of the rate cuts demanded by President Trump. The vote was the most divisive in the history of Fed chair confirmations, and April's inflation spike leaves Warsh with no excuses not to raise rates.

5 updates·Last update 5 months ago
Resolved
Central Banks

Senate Committee Approves Kevin Warsh’s Nomination for Fed Chair

The Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve in a 13-11 party-line vote. This nomination comes as Warsh faces external political pressures and energy shocks, while Jerome Powell warns that the central bank's independence is 'at risk.' The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates next year, but inflation concerns remain high.

14 updates·Last update 6 months ago
EUR/USDDXY+1
Resolved
Central Banks

Philippines Central Bank Delivers Surprise Rate Hike to Combat Inflation

On April 23, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) initiated a new hiking cycle with a surprise 25bp rate increase. The central bank also revised its inflation forecasts higher due to rising oil prices and geopolitical risks.

3 updates·Last update 6 months ago
PHP/USD
Central Banks
EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USD
Resolved
Central Banks

Central Bank Super-Week: Fed and Global Peers Set to Decide Interest Rate Paths

Last week, significant decisions were made by central banks, with the FOMC meeting discussing interest rates, which were held at 3.5%-3.75%. Additionally, equity indices fell, with the Nifty 50 dropping 1.24% to 23,018.25. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $110 due to the Iranian conflict, raising inflation concerns.

3 updates·Last update 7 months ago
EUR/USDUSD/JPY+5