The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week rose to 70% following a surge in oil prices above $100 and rising wholesale prices. These factors have accelerated inflation fears, leading markets to price in a potential second rate increase before the end of the year. Looking further ahead, the Fed is expected to begin a new tightening cycle in September 2026, involving three to four hikes through August 2027. Despite these projections, stock market concerns remain limited as the 10Y2Y yield curve has not yet inverted.
