Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July 2026 have vanished, with sentiment shifting toward a potential 25-basis-point hike, now at a 46.5% probability. This pivot follows a private sector surplus of over $112B in June, which bolstered risk asset markets. While the S&P 500 is expected to maintain momentum into mid-August, financial models are signaling a deceleration in overall gains.
Surging energy costs following the end of the US-Iran ceasefire threaten to reverse recent progress in cooling inflation.
Read the full storyAmid emerging signs of easing price pressures, recent reports indicate a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance toward holding interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting, pivoting away from previous expectations of a new tightening cycle.
Traders on the prediction platform see a near-certainty of a Fed pause in July following softer-than-expected inflation figures.
June 2026 private sector surplus topped $112B, supporting S&P 500 momentum even as rate cut expectations diminish.
CME FedWatch tool shows traders pivoting from rate cut expectations to pricing in a potential 25-basis-point hike at the upcoming July meeting.
Financial markets have ruled out a Federal Reserve rate cut for July 2026, with current outlooks shifting toward a potential rate hike instead.