Currency
Stock Index
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from BCB Fiscal Statistics 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14.25 | 14 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 4.44 | 4.64 | 4.4 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Inflation Rate MoM | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.03 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| 3.81 | 4.44 | 3.77 | Beat | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.52 | 4.34 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.06 | -0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 1.94 | 2.47 | 2.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.83 | -0.81 | -0.6 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| Net Payrolls | 58.57 | 145.16 | 112 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 82.5 | 81.9 | 82.2 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 82.5 | 81.9 | 82.2 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 69.1 | 68.5 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 43.8 | 42.8 | 43 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 46.3 | 44.4 | 44.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 84.7 | 88.3 | 88.6 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 7.07 | 9.4 | 8.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 2.99 | 5.86 | 2.65 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -8.11 | -2.69 | -6.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 15551 | 15967 | — | ||||
| 16827 | 20003 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 46.3 | 47.5 | 47.2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 49.7 | 51.3 | 50.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Composite PMI | 48.8 | 50.7 | 49.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -0.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.2 | -1.6 | 1.2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 42.5 | 44.6 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 42.9 | 44.2 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 45.9 | 46 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -97.6 | -166 | -84 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Government Budget Value | -4.62 | -13.02 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.4 | -55.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Lending MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Foreign Direct Investment | 7.46 | 9.07 | 7.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -0.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 53.38 | 52.05 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 2 | 0.7 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0 | -0.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 3.1 | -3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 2.6 | -0.8 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| IGP-M Inflation MoM | -0.22 | -1.16 | -0.25 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.52 | 4.34 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.06 | -0.3 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | -0.5 | -1.1 | 0.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM | 0.17 | 0.23 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| IGP-DI Inflation MoM | -0.86 | -0.79 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| IGP-M Inflation YoY | 0.28 | -3.04 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| IPC-Fipe Inflation | 0.22 | 1.15 | — |
| HSBC PMI Manufacturing |
| 49.7 |
| 50.2 |
| — |
| Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Sales MoM | 2.6 | -0.8 | 1.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Car Production MoM | 3.1 | -3 | 2.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Tax Revenue | 264.44 | 266.79 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC BRL speculative net positions | 40.1 | 52.7 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Registrations MoM | 8.6 | -39 | 12 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 2-Year LTN Auction | 14.903 | 14.461 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year NTN-F Auction | 14.972 | 14.723 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month LTN Auction | 14.537 | 14.598 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Federal Tax Revenues | 261.3 | 209.2 | 255.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Factory Utilization | 76.9 | 77.4 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
