Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.40 | +0.50 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 0.40 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 1.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| May 13, 2026 | 4.00 | 2.75 | +1.25 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | 0.40 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 2.80 | 1.70 | +1.10 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.50 | -0.20 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1.30 | 0.20 | +1.10 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1.10 | -0.50 | +1.60 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 0.80 | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 0.40 | 0.50 | -0.10 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 1.00 | 0.80 | +0.20 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | 0.30 | 2.40 | -2.10 |
| Jul 8, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.40 | -0.30 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 4.80 | 3.40 | +1.40 |
| May 15, 2025 | -1.00 | -0.50 | -0.50 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 1.50 | 1.60 | -0.10 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3.10 | 1.90 | +1.20 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 2.00 | 3.50 | -1.50 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 4.70 | 3.80 | +0.90 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 6.50 | 4.80 | +1.70 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2.10 | 3.70 | -1.60 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 5.10 | 3.60 | +1.50 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 4.40 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Aug 14, 2024 | 4.00 | 2.50 | +1.50 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 8.10 | 4.00 | +4.10 |
| Jun 13, 2024 | 2.20 | 3.40 | -1.20 |
| May 8, 2024 | 5.70 | 5.20 | +0.50 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 8.20 | 3.30 | +4.90 |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 4.10 | 1.30 | +2.80 |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1.30 | 2.90 | -1.60 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 0.20 | 1.76 | -1.56 |
| Nov 8, 2023 | 3.30 | 2.50 | +0.80 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2.30 | 1.20 | +1.10 |
| Sep 15, 2023 | 2.40 | 1.80 | +0.60 |
| Aug 9, 2023 | 1.30 | 0.35 | +0.95 |
| Jul 14, 2023 | -1.00 | 1.95 | -2.95 |
| Jun 14, 2023 | 0.50 | 0.95 | -0.45 |
| May 17, 2023 | 3.20 | -0.10 | +3.30 |
| Apr 25, 2023 | 1.00 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2.60 | 1.40 | +1.20 |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 0.40 | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1.50 | 1.90 | -0.40 |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2.70 | 2.30 | +0.40 |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3.20 | 1.40 | +1.80 |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1.60 | -4.70 | +6.30 |
| Sep 14, 2022 | -5.20 | -3.50 | -1.70 |
| Aug 10, 2022 | -0.30 | 0.60 | -0.90 |
| Jul 13, 2022 | -0.20 | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | 0.20 | 0.40 | +0.20 ↑ |
