The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | — | 4.20 | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 4.24 | 4.34 | -0.10 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.04 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.04 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 4.52 | 4.67 | -0.15 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 4.64 | 4.80 | -0.16 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 4.64 | 4.80 | -0.16 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.82 | -0.02 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 4.72 | 4.66 | +0.06 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 4.72 | 4.66 | +0.06 |
| May 27, 2026 | 4.64 | 4.55 | +0.09 |
| May 12, 2026 | 4.39 | 4.41 | -0.02 |
| May 12, 2026 | 4.39 | 4.41 | -0.02 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 4.37 | 4.48 | -0.11 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 4.14 | 4.00 | +0.14 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3.81 | 3.77 | +0.04 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.01 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 4.26 | 4.30 | -0.04 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 4.46 | 4.49 | -0.03 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 4.68 | 4.75 | -0.07 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 5.17 | 5.22 | -0.05 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 5.13 | 5.10 | +0.03 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 5.23 | 5.33 | -0.10 |
| Jul 10, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.32 | +0.03 |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 5.32 | 5.50 | -0.18 |
| May 9, 2025 | 5.53 | 5.50 | +0.03 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 5.48 | 5.48 | 0.00 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 5.06 | 5.00 | +0.06 |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 4.56 | 4.57 | -0.01 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 4.83 | 4.90 | -0.07 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 4.87 | 4.85 | +0.02 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.76 | 4.72 | +0.04 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 4.42 | 4.43 | -0.01 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 4.24 | 4.30 | -0.06 |
| Aug 9, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.47 | +0.03 |
| Jul 10, 2024 | 4.23 | 4.35 | -0.12 |
| Jun 11, 2024 | 3.93 | 3.89 | +0.04 |
| May 10, 2024 | 3.69 | 3.66 | +0.03 |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3.93 | 4.01 | -0.08 |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.06 |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.09 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 4.62 | 4.54 | +0.08 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 4.68 | 4.70 | -0.02 |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 4.82 | 4.87 | -0.05 |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.08 |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 4.61 | 4.67 | -0.06 |
| Aug 11, 2023 | 3.99 | 3.93 | +0.06 |
| Jul 11, 2023 | 3.16 | 3.17 | -0.01 |
| Jun 7, 2023 | 3.94 | 4.04 | -0.10 |
| May 12, 2023 | 4.18 | 4.10 | +0.08 |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 4.65 | 4.70 | -0.05 |
