The IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15) serves as a reliable preview of Brazil's official monthly inflation data. It tracks price changes for a basket of goods and services consumed by households with incomes ranging from 1 to 40 minimum wages. This indicator is a critical tool for the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) in assessing whether inflation is trending toward its target, directly influencing Selic interest rate decisions.
Calculated by the IBGE using a survey of prices in several metropolitan areas, comparing the current mid-month period to the same period of the previous year. It uses the Laspeyres formula to weight different categories based on household expenditure surveys.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | — | 4.70 | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 4.24 | 4.34 | -0.10 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 4.52 | 4.67 | -0.15 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.82 | -0.02 |
| May 27, 2026 | 4.64 | 4.55 | +0.09 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 4.37 | 4.49 | -0.12 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3.90 | 3.74 | +0.16 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 4.10 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 4.50 | 4.51 | -0.01 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 4.41 | 4.40 | +0.01 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.49 | +0.01 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.08 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | 5.32 | 5.36 | -0.04 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | 4.95 | 4.91 | +0.04 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 5.30 | 5.26 | +0.04 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 5.27 | 5.31 | -0.04 |
| May 27, 2025 | 5.40 | 5.49 | -0.09 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 5.49 | 5.49 | 0.00 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 5.26 | 5.30 | -0.04 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 4.96 | 5.09 | -0.13 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.36 | +0.14 |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 4.71 | 4.82 | -0.11 |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 4.77 | 4.62 | +0.15 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 4.47 | 4.43 | +0.04 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 4.12 | 4.29 | -0.17 |
| Aug 27, 2024 | 4.35 | 4.37 | -0.02 |
| Jul 25, 2024 | 4.45 | 4.38 | +0.07 |
| Jun 26, 2024 | 4.06 | 4.12 | -0.06 |
| May 28, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.72 | -0.02 |
| Apr 26, 2024 | 3.77 | 3.86 | -0.09 |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.04 |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 4.49 | 4.52 | -0.03 |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 4.47 | 4.63 | -0.16 |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 4.72 | 4.59 | +0.13 |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 4.84 | 4.80 | +0.04 |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 5.05 | 5.04 | +0.01 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.01 | -0.01 |
| Aug 25, 2023 | 4.24 | 4.13 | +0.11 |
| Jul 25, 2023 | 3.19 | 3.26 | -0.07 |
| Jun 27, 2023 | 3.40 | 3.36 | +0.04 |
| May 25, 2023 | 4.07 | 4.20 | -0.13 |
| Apr 26, 2023 | 4.16 | 4.20 | -0.04 |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 5.36 | 5.30 | +0.06 |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 5.63 | 5.60 | +0.03 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 5.87 | 5.83 | +0.04 |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 5.90 | 5.92 | -0.02 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 6.17 | 6.21 | -0.04 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 6.85 | 6.75 | +0.10 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 7.96 | 8.14 | -0.18 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 9.60 | 9.50 | +0.10 |
| Jul 26, 2022 | 11.39 | 11.41 | -0.02 |
