EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| CPI | 1.1 | 0.8 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | In Line | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Producer Price Index YoY | 7.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Producer Price Index MoM | 2.4 | 0 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 0.1 | -1 | 0 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.4 | 0.4 | — | ||||
| 0.1 | — | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | In Line |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | In Line | ||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | In Line | ||
| Full Year GDP Growth | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| 1 | 0.8 | 1 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| -0.4 | 0.6 | -0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -2.8 | -2.4 | -2.7 | Miss |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Output YoY | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Construction PMI | 49.1 | 45.4 | 47 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| 94.5 | 94.2 | 95 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 89.9 | 89.7 | 90 | Miss | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.946 | 4.74 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 0.17 | 1.83 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 5839 | 627 | 2680 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Balance of Trade EU | 1.58 | 1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Balance of Trade Non-EU | 2.55 | 3.84 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 51.3 | 51.5 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 52.5 | 50.2 | 51.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 52.5 | 50.8 | 52.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| -0.6 | 1.2 | 1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -1 | -0.3 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| -1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 53.6 | 50.1 | 51.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Budget | -3.1 | -3.4 | -3 | Miss | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| 10-Year Bond Auction | 1.36 | 1.48 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Car Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| HICP MoM | 0.1 | -1 | — | |||
| 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 10-Year BTP Auction | 4.1 | 4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 5-Year BTP Auction | 3.44 | 3.39 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 6-Month BOT Auction | 2.472 | 2.567 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2-Year BTP Short Term Auction | 3.02 | 2.92 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 44.33 | 45.85 | — |
| IHS Markit Services PMI | 52.8 | 48.5 | 52.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI | 58.3 | 58.3 | 58 | Beat |
| Industrial Orders YoY | 7 | 5 | 5.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Industrial Orders MoM | 1.7 | -1.4 | 0.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Markit/ADACI Services PMI | 48.8 | 47.1 | 46.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 12-Month BOT Auction | 2.768 | 2.69 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 15-Year BTP Auction | 3.95 | 4.23 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| BTP Auction | 2.04 | 1.78 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 7-Year BTP Auction | 2.89 | 3.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Sales MoM | -2.5 | -3.3 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Year BTP Auction | 2.98 | 3.03 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 20-Year BTP Auction | 3.75 | 4.04 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Registrations YoY | 14 | 6.2 | 4.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Registrations MoM | 31.4 | -13 | — |
| 30-Year BTP Auction | 4.3 | 4.26 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| BTP Green Auction | 3.4 | 4.181 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| BTP Short Term Auction | 1.9 | 1.51 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| BTP Index-Linked Auction | 1.51 | 1.81 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 50-Year BTP Auction | 3.96 | 4.2 | — |
| Index-Linked BTP Auction | 2.24 | 2.05 | — |
| 17-Year BTP Auction | 4.74 | 4.67 | — |
| 4-Month BOT Auction | 3.127 | 2.934 | — |
| BTP 10 Years | 2.22 | 2.45 | — |
| BTP 5 Years | 1.09 | -1.52 | — |
| Off-the-run 8-Year BTP Auction | 3.3 | — | — |
