The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 3.10 | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| May 29, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| May 15, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1.50 | 1.60 | -0.10 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1.60 | 1.10 | +0.50 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1.00 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1.20 | 1.10 | +0.10 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1.10 | 1.20 | -0.10 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1.20 | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1.20 | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.70 | -0.10 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.70 | -0.10 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.70 | -0.10 |
| May 30, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| May 16, 2025 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 1.90 | 2.00 | -0.10 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.60 | +0.40 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.70 | -0.10 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1.50 | 1.00 | +0.50 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1.30 | 1.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1.30 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 0.90 | 1.00 | -0.10 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.80 | -0.10 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 1.10 | 1.20 | -0.10 |
| Aug 9, 2024 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 1.30 | 1.20 | +0.10 |
