Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from IMF Article IV 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.35 | 4.6 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| CPI | 1 | 0.2 | — | |||
| CPI YoY | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 4.3 | 5 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| House Price Index MoM | 6 | 4.9 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment | 116.6 | 114.9 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 55.9 | 53.1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 115.2 | 111.5 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 133.53 | 119.09 | 118.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | 90.45 | 102.33 | 98.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 193.7 | 184.3 | 195.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 36.3 | 25 | 25.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 31 | 28.2 | 24.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 29.6 | 18.6 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 24.6 | 21.7 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| Balance of Trade Yuan | 905.97 | 809.3 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.4 | 51.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 50.5 | 49.5 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 52.1 | 51.5 | 51.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 52.4 | 52.1 | 52.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 50.2 | 49 | 49.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| General PMI | 50.7 | 49.5 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 69.29 | 74.67 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |
| 3550 | 1660 | 3270 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1080 | 60 | 975 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| -8.4 | -5.1 | -4.3 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3.4 | 3.438 | 3.43 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 3 | 3 |
| Beat |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Beat |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Industrial Profits YoY | 15.7 | 17.6 | 18 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Industrial Capacity Utilization | 73 | 73.6 | 74 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Caixin Services PMI | 52 | 52.1 | 52 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC China Services PMI | 51.8 | 53.5 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 49.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC Services PMI | 50.7 | 50.9 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| In Line |
| Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | In Line |
| Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3 | In Line |
| FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.3 | -6.2 | -5.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| New Yuan Loans | -340 | 1610 | 45 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement | 2 | 2 | 2 | In Line |
| Leading Economic Index | 1.6 | 1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Capital Flows | -76.6 | -94.5 | — |
| Urban Investment YoY | 19.6 | 19.9 | 19.5 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Urban Investment YTD | 20.4 | 20.6 | 20.6 | Miss |
