Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from IMF Article IV 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.35 | 4.6 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1 | 0.2 | — | ||||
| CPI YoY | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| CPI MoM | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5 | 5.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 4.3 | 5 | 4.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.4 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| House Price Index MoM | 6 | 4.9 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 1 | 1.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Westpac MNI Consumer Sentiment | 116.6 | 114.9 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 55.9 | 53.1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 115.2 | 111.5 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 112.5 | 125.62 | 107 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 90.45 | 102.33 | 98.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 195.1 | 184.3 | 150 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 23.9 | 27 | 22.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 27.5 | 36 | 27.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 17.8 | 20.8 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| 21.2 | 29.4 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| Balance of Trade Yuan | 767.07 | 859.05 | 740 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 50.9 | 51 | Beat | ||
| Services PMI | 50.4 | 54.1 | 53.7 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Composite PMI | 49.5 | 49.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 4.5 | 5.3 | 5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 49 | 49 | 49.5 | Miss |
| 17.6 | 18.7 | 16 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 73 | 73.6 | 74 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 50.3 | 50.1 | 50.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDI (YTD) YoY | -6.2 | -5 | -6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3 | In Line | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | In Line | |||
| 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | In Line | |||
| -6.7 | -5.7 | -6.2 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1410 | 3360 | 1200 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 7.7 | 8 | 7.9 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| General PMI | 49.8 | 50.7 | 50.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Caixin Services PMI | 52 | 52.1 | 52 | In Line |
| Caixin Composite PMI | 50.8 | 51.3 | 50.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC China Services PMI | 51.8 | 53.5 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 49.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HSBC Services PMI | 50.7 | 50.9 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Yuan Loans | -340 | 1610 | 45 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Loans | -340 | 1610 | -50 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 74.79 | 72.84 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Vehicle Sales YoY | -0.3 | -3.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.419 | 3.416 | 3.42 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement | 2 | 2 | 2 | In Line |
| Leading Economic Index | 1.6 | 1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Capital Flows | -76.6 | -94.5 | — |
| Urban Investment YoY | 19.6 | 19.9 | 19.5 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Urban Investment YTD | 20.4 | 20.6 | 20.6 | Miss |
